Consumer confidence eases to 96.2 as fuel costs weigh on households
New Zealand households have become more pessimistic about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to their lowest level in more than three years. The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence survey for October 2026 shows consumers now expect house prices to rise 2% over the coming year, down from 2.4% in September and the weakest reading since July 2023.
ANZ said that after a few false starts in recent years, “consumers seem to have an increasingly negative take on where the market is headed”. For mortgage advisers, a softer price outlook could temper urgency among buyers. ANZ noted, however, that any price move brings winners as well as losers.
Falling prices may ease entry for first-home buyers, and that is already showing up in the market. First-home buyers made up a record 29.5% of purchases in the September quarter, according to Cotality, even as overall sales stayed flat or fell.
Inflation expectations ease
Consumers’ inflation outlook has also softened. Households expect annual inflation of 4.2% two years ahead, down from 4.5% and the lowest since March 2025, a fall ANZ described as somewhat surprising.
The easing comes days after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 2.75% on 28 October, noting that medium-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Fuel costs weigh on current conditions
Overall consumer confidence slipped 1.4 points to 96.2, below the neutral level of 100 but still 16 points above its April low.
“New Zealand consumers remain under the pump,” ANZ said, pointing to extremely high fuel prices, inflation outpacing income growth, and a weak currency. Against that backdrop, the bank described the result as fairly resilient.
The gap between how households see the present and the future widened. The current conditions index fell from 87.3 to 81.1, which ANZ suspected was due to fuel prices, while the future conditions index rose from 104.5 to 106.2.
Views on personal finances followed the same split. A net 21% reported being worse off than a year ago, compared with a net 19% in September. Looking ahead, however, a net 24% expect to be better off in a year’s time, a fourth consecutive monthly rise and well above April’s low of 3%.
Appetite for major purchases weakened sharply. A net 17% of respondents said it was a bad time to buy a major household item, a 10-point deterioration in a month, with 51% now saying it is a bad time to buy.
ANZ said a more meaningful lift in consumer mood is likely to depend on a stronger labour market rather than a housing upswing. It expects employment to improve in this week’s labour market data, though not rapidly.
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