Appraisal requests rise, pointing to more spring listings ahead
First-home buyer activity is picking up in New Zealand's housing market while investors remain on the sidelines, according to the September 2026 NZHL Property Report by independent economist Tony Alexander (pictured).
A net 45% of the 179 real estate agents surveyed said they were seeing more first-home buyers, up from 32% in August and the strongest result since a net 49% at the end of February, before the Middle East war began.
"Young buyers are enjoying a good supply of property to choose from and generally high willingness by banks to advance funds," Alexander said.
He noted that it would be worth watching how that demand holds up as mortgage rates rise over the coming year.
That test may come soon. ANZ and Westpac expect the official cash rate (OCR) to reach 3% by the end of 2026, from 2.75% now, and ASB expects 3.25%. ANZ and Westpac also forecast further hikes in 2027, to peaks of 3.5% and 4% respectively.
Investors find little reason to buy
Investor demand shows no matching improvement. A net 46% of agents reported fewer investors looking to buy, a reading largely unchanged since April.
Hopes of picking up a bargain remain the main thing drawing investors in, though even that motivation has been fading for a year.
"There is virtually no motivation to purchase coming from price rise expectations," Alexander said.
On the selling side, agents also detected a slight, continuing rise in investors bringing properties to market. Alexander linked this to older investors cashing in for retirement, lower expectations of long-term capital gains, and possibly capital gains tax proposals.
Buyers hold the upper hand
A net 34% of agents described the market as favouring buyers. For the sixth straight month, close to a net 40% said prices were falling in their area.
Alexander estimated national prices were running about 1% below a year earlier, though stronger rural incomes are lifting values in regions such as Southland and Canterbury, an effect not yet felt in Auckland or Wellington.
Buyers are in little hurry. A net 14% of agents reported smaller auction crowds, the seventh negative month in a row. Open home attendance has improved steadily from its late-April low but is still negative, with a net 9% of agents reporting fewer attendees. Just 8% of agents said buyers were worried about missing out.
Rising interest rates and the risk of prices falling after purchase are now buyers' main worries, while concerns about getting finance have eased.
More supply on the way
A net 32% of agents reported more requests for property appraisals, up from 19% in August, which Alexander said suggests more listings could soon reach the market.
Stock is already building, with realestate.co.nz data showing national stock for sale up 10.7% on a year earlier at 34,001 properties.
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