NZ net migration stabilises in November

ASB, Westpac analyse stabilising NZ migration trends for November

NZ net migration stabilises in November

November marked a notable shift in New Zealand’s net migration trends, with insights provided by Michael Gordon of Westpac and Nick Tuffley of ASB.

This period reflected stabilisation at a lower but still positive migration level, amidst broader economic adjustments.

Detailed migration analysis

Michael Gordon (pictured above left), senior economist at Westpac NZ, observed a subtle yet significant adjustment in migration flows.

“Net migration is stabilising at a lower but still positive level,” Gordon said, reflecting on the seasonally adjusted net inflow of 2,070 people for November, up from 1,530 the previous month.

This comes after the volatility in 2022-23 post-border reopening, indicating a return to more stable, yet reduced, migration patterns.

ASB’s economic perspective

Nick Tuffley (pictured above right), ASB’s chief economist, provided a broader economic context to the migration data, emphasising the downward trend in net migration.

“The air continues to slowly deflate from the net migration balloon, with net PLT immigration inflows down to 30k annually, their lowest level since late 2022,” Tuffley said.

He noted the dual trends of slowing arrivals and increasing departures as central to this phenomenon.

Implications on tourism and monetary policy

Despite the rise in the visitor levy, Tuffley observed that tourism numbers have not been adversely affected and appear to have plateaued at a lower level.

“Lower net migration and a plateauing in tourism arrivals is consistent with the further paring back of monetary policy restraint," he said.

Tuffley anticipates that the Reserve Bank might introduce a further rate cut, predicting, “Our view is that the RBNZ will deliver another 50bp cut in February 2025.”

Forward outlook

Both ASB and Westpac highlighted the continued evolution in the migration trends and their impact on New Zealand’s economy.

Gordon’s analysis suggested a steady state of incoming migrants that does not yet indicate a move towards net zero, which was previously forecasted.

Meanwhile, Tuffley hinted at potential faster declines in net inflows, which could reshape the economic support structures for New Zealand's housing market, domestic demand, and labour capacity.

Read the latest insights on migration from Westpac and ASB