Sales tend to lift after a vote, but history offers no guarantees
New Zealand’s housing market is heading into the 7 November general election in weaker shape than usual. However, three decades of data suggest the vote itself is unlikely to set its direction.
Prices in September 2026 were 2.4% below their pre-campaign average, and the 78,154 sales in the year to September were 3.1% below pre-campaign levels, according to an analysis of Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) data by Ray White NZ economist Atom Go Tian (pictured). He said the price weakness more likely reflects a soft economy and rising interest rates than any election effect.
What 30 years of elections show
The analysis compared all 11 general elections since 1993 with “ordinary periods” at least a year away from a vote.
By election month, prices were on average 6% above their pre-campaign level, against 7% in ordinary periods. A year after polling day, the gap was similarly modest: 15.5% versus 12.3%. Go Tian said the difference is small, “suggesting prices follow the market’s underlying trend through elections.”
Sales were also little changed before a vote, up 0.7% compared with 0.9% in ordinary periods. “There’s no sign of buyers and sellers stalling before the vote,” he said.
The clearer shift comes afterwards. In the year after an election, sales averaged 11.5% above pre-campaign levels, compared with 2.4% in ordinary periods. Volumes rose after seven of the 11 elections, and homes sold about two days faster.
Weak lead-ups offer mixed signals
Housing policy dominated the 2014 and 2017 campaigns, and sales were down 8% and 13% by election month. The 26% fall in 2008 was driven by the global financial crisis.
A year after those three soft lead-ups, sales ranged from a 13% fall to an 11% rise, “so history doesn’t promise a bounce”.
Policy platforms diverge on property
Housing now ranks fifth among voter concerns in Ipsos’s September survey, behind the cost of living, healthcare, the economy, and unemployment. Even so, the parties remain split on property.
National plans to lift the First Home Loans income limit to $300,000, and opposes a capital gains tax alongside ACT and NZ First. ACT would restore loss offsetting for landlords, NZ First wants social housing for citizens first, and the Greens propose rent limits and a landlord register. Labour proposes a capital gains tax on investment and commercial property, Te Pāti Māori a tax on home sales, and Opportunity a land value tax.
Go Tian cautioned that coalition deals and tight government finances will shape which policies become law. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted the official cash rate (OCR) to 2.75% in September, its second hike since tightening resumed in July, and its next decision is due on 28 October.
“What the market is waiting on most now is interest rates, jobs and the cost of living,” he said.
Stay informed with the latest housing market trends and mortgage insights — subscribe to our free daily newsletter.
