Net migration is up 88% and Kiwi flight is at a four-year low — here is what the data means for housing demand
New Zealand's migration trends are shifting in two directions simultaneously — and both matter for the housing market. Fewer Kiwis are leaving for overseas, while arrivals from Asia continue to strengthen, pushing annual net migration to 22,812 in the April 2026 year, up 87.7% on the same period a year earlier, according to Statistics NZ data analysed by interest.co.nz and ASB Bank.
The monthly headline figure showed a seasonally adjusted net inflow of 3,090 people in April — solid, but still well below the long-term monthly average of around 4,000. The annual total of 22,812 also remains far short of the 10-year average of approximately 49,000.
ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa warned that "downward revisions have weakened the underlying improvement" and cautioned the revisions posed downside risk to RBNZ projections if persistent.
Kiwi flight easing — but still elevated
NZ citizen departures fell 4.7% in the April 2026 year, continuing a steady decline that ASB has signalled for some time. In April alone, departures hit their lowest monthly level since 2022 — down 9.8% on April last year and 17.4% on April 2024.
Despite the improvement, approximately 63,400 NZ citizens still departed on a long-term basis over the past year, leaving a net loss of 37,269 NZ citizens that continues to temper overall population gains.
ASB noted that geopolitics may be extending the trend: "A delay in OE plans is conceivable given the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, which could keep NZ PLT departures lower than otherwise." Conversely, a stronger Australian labour market remains a wildcard that could slow the decline in Kiwi flight.
Asia leads the inflow
Non-NZ citizen permanent and long-term arrivals rose 0.7% in the April 2026 year, with growth concentrated in arrivals from China and the Philippines, up 2.4% and 3.9% respectively. In the full annual figures, the largest net migration contributors by country were China at 11,975, India at 11,169, and the Philippines at 7,985. This concentration of arrivals from Asia is relevant for mortgage advisers — these cohorts have historically shown strong rates of property purchasing activity, particularly in Auckland and other major urban centres.
Tourism arrivals reached 3.65 million in the April 2026 year — 93% of pre-COVID peaks and up 8.4% on the prior year. The recovery in visitor numbers adds to rental demand pressure in popular destinations, a dynamic already being felt in markets where short-term accommodation competes directly with long-term rental stock.
What it means for housing demand
A growing population base driven by net migration and easing Kiwi flight points to sustained demand for housing — both to purchase and to rent. First-home buyers entering the market over the next 12 to 18 months will be competing in a demand environment that is strengthening, even if supply remains constrained.
However, ASB warned "It's a waiting game for data now," as persistent downward revisions complicate how much signal can be drawn from near-term figures — and how the RBNZ interprets migration's contribution to medium-term inflation will have direct consequences for the mortgage rate outlook.
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