Revenue expectations are rising, but the recovery is uneven and the property market remains depressed
"Slower market... patchy really." That verdict from a mortgage broking respondent in Tony Alexander's June Mint Business Insights survey captures the mood of an economy that is recovering — but unevenly, and not yet in ways that are flowing through to property and lending activity.
The June survey, drawing on responses from 291 businesses across more than 30 sectors, found a net 31% of respondents expecting revenues to improve over the coming year — up sharply from 21% last month and just 10% in early April. But the pre-conflict baseline tells a more sobering story: before the US military action on 28 February, a net 55% held positive revenue expectations, meaning the recovery still has a long way to run.
Costs rising, but businesses are reluctant to pass them on
Despite strong expectations of further cost increases, only a net 3% of businesses plan to raise selling prices over the next 12 months, down from 7% last month. Alexander attributed this restraint partly to weak perceptions of the New Zealand economy's underlying strength. Input cost concerns remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels, while supply chain worries have eased substantially over the past two months. Interest rate concerns are holding at elevated levels reached early this year — driven by rising wholesale borrowing costs rather than any new escalation from the conflict.
NZIER's June Consensus Forecasts, compiled from six major banks plus the RBNZ and Treasury, help explain why: GDP growth for the year ending March was cut to just 0.6%, with household spending forecasts also trimmed as fuel and food costs erode purchasing power faster than wages can keep pace.
Residential real estate especially hard hit
Two consecutive months of improvement in equipment spending and a firm lift in advertising intentions offer some positive signals. Plans to enter new markets and develop new products have also edged upward. The primary sector — particularly dairy and red meat — is reporting strong conditions and elevated sentiment.
Residential real estate tells a different story entirely. Survey respondents described conditions as "especially depressed," with buyer confidence hollowed out by geopolitical uncertainty and looming election anxiety. Vendors are still reluctant to accept market-level pricing, and clients are delaying decisions until the rate and political outlook becomes clearer — exactly the dynamic brokers are navigating in client conversations right now.
That hesitancy extends to the household sector more broadly. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in three years in the June quarter, with the Westpac-McDermott Miller index dropping 14.3 points to 80.4 — well below the 10-year average of 98.3 — as fuel costs, higher mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty bear down on household budgets.
For brokers, the second half of 2026 looks more like a period of client management than client acquisition — with hesitant buyers, refixing borrowers, and a property market where vendor and buyer expectations remain far apart.
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