RBC Economics maps a patchwork of recoveries, slumps and supply crunches across the country
Canada's major housing markets told seven distinct stories in July 2026, according to a new analysis by Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Economics.
Signs of recovery emerged in Toronto and Ottawa, turnarounds took hold in Edmonton and Halifax, Calgary ran into a supply crunch, Montreal settled into a soft landing, and Vancouver and the Fraser Valley remained mired in a continuing slump.
"Significant unevenness is likely to persist," Hogue wrote in the report. He attributed the divergence to different levels of confidence, affordability, pent-up demand, demographics, and job markets.
Read more: Slow start to 2026 hides Canada’s sharpest housing market split in years
Toronto shows signs of turning the corner
Five consecutive months of resale gains in the Toronto area in July marked the longest winning streak in three years. The city also posted a second straight monthly rise in the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark, the longest such stretch since early 2024.
Hogue said inventory levelling off in Ontario is a positive signal for home value stabilisation.
The caution signs, however, remain visible. Resales in the Toronto area are still more than 30% below pre-pandemic levels, and the MLS HPI benchmark remains 4.6% below a year ago.
The condo segment is under particular pressure, with its benchmark price down 7.4% year-over-year and brokers dealing with appraisal challenges know how sharply those declines cut.
The 905 region is also lagging, with resales 2.4% lower than July 2025.
New listings have declined for three consecutive months, helping to gradually draw down inventory, though Hogue cautioned that abundant condo supply is poised to keep that segment's prices on a downward path for some time yet.
The GTA housing market tightened in July as new listings fell sharply. Daniel Steinfeld and Jason Mercer of the Toronto Regional Real Estatehttps://t.co/3nwb5k2ZIx
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) August 6, 2026
Vancouver and Calgary face steeper recoveries
Vancouver's four-year slump deepened in July. Resales fell more than 8% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis, erasing what had appeared to be an emerging spring recovery. The MLS HPI declined 6.2% year-over-year, a slightly faster pace than June's 6% drop.
Hogue said affordability constraints, weak confidence, and rapidly slowing population growth remain major obstacles, with further price depreciation likely needed before buyer demand recovers on a sustained basis.
Vancouver-based mortgage broker Kyle Green told Canadian Mortgage Professional in May that detached properties were likely to see values "flatten out in the second half for detached or perhaps even townhomes — or at least will be decreasing at a slower rate."
Calgary's challenge is different: sellers have retreated rather than buyers. New listings have fallen in five of the past six months, with active listings down more than 4% year-over-year, potentially limiting options for some buyers.
The condo segment is absorbing the most pressure, with detached sales rising across some key markets as buyers concentrate in freehold properties.
Condo transactions fell 20% and the benchmark price fell 8.4% in the past year.
Despite this, the overall rate of price decline appears to be easing. The MLS HPI fell 2.1% year-over-year in July, compared with 3.2% in January.
RBC Economics said improving affordability and rebuilding consumer confidence are expected to progressively unlock pent-up demand and support a broader Canadian recovery, but the path will be uneven and the timeline will differ city by city.
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