Behind the sales uptick lies a structural shift in the supply pipeline
Toronto's condominium market turned in its most encouraging sales result in months during April, with transaction volumes climbing from a year earlier even as prices continued to erode.
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a total of 1,553 condominium units were sold across the Greater Toronto Area in April.
Toronto accounted for 68% of all transactions with 1,054 sales at an average of $665,507. The city's 416 area code, recorded a 14.4% year-over-year increase in condo sales, a pace that stands out against the backdrop of a segment that spent much of the past two years in freefall.
And yet prices told a sobering parallel story. Condo apartments averaged $635,653 across the GTA, up 2.4% month-over-month but down 6.3% year-over-year.
In the 416, average condo values settled at $665,507. That's a 6.4% annual decline that confirms buyers are entering at materially lower levels than those who purchased even twelve months ago.
In the 905 region, the picture was softer still, with average prices at $572,594, down 7.5% from April 2025.
Toronto sales rose 7 percent in April according to TRREB, but Marshall Tully of HB Mortgage Team says activity is concentrated in starter homes and select condo segments while higher end properties remain subdued.https://t.co/EIguSPijOU
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) May 7, 2026
Buyers move, prices wait
The divergence between sales activity and price direction is the defining tension of this market, and it is not one that brokers can afford to gloss over when advising clients.
Volumes are recovering because affordability has improved enough, after years of price compression, to unlock latent demand.
However, that same affordability improvement reflects how far values have fallen, and buyers who enter now are doing so knowing the floor has not yet been definitively confirmed.
TRREB's MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down 6.6% year-over-year in April 2026, while the average selling price across all home types fell 4.9% to $1,051,969.
On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged up compared to March, and the HPI Composite was flat over the same period.
That month-over-month stabilisation is what analysts and brokers will be watching closely in the months ahead.
New listings entered into TRREB's MLS system amounted to 17,097, down 9.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, sales across all property types rose 7% to 5,946.
Sales rising faster than new supply is, in theory, the precondition for price recovery, but in a segment carrying as much structural inventory overhang as Toronto condos, that precondition alone is unlikely to be sufficient.
The supply equation
Behind the sales uptick lies a structural shift in the supply pipeline that may ultimately shape the market's recovery more than any single month's transaction data.
Urbanation reported a record 4,295 completed but unsold condo units as of the first quarter of 2026, more than double the level a year earlier, representing 92 months of completed new supply based on the recent sales pace.
Critically, however, the pipeline feeding that inventory is collapsing. Condo completions, which hit almost 30,000 units annually in 2024 and 2025, are projected by Urbanation to fall to 21,850 in 2026 and to roughly 14,600 and 13,000 units in 2027 and 2028.
No new project launches occurred in the first quarter of 2026 — a first in at least three decades.
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
