July data shows incremental progress, but national resales remain 12% below the decade-long average
Canada's housing market extended its winning streak in July. Home resales rose for a fourth consecutive month, edging up 0.5% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the pace of that improvement makes plain how much ground the market still needs to recover.
According to RBC Economics' July monthly housing market update, national transactions came in at 457,500 annualized units, roughly 12% below the 10-year average.
At the rate of advance recorded over the past two months, it would take more than two and a half years for activity to return to that long-run norm, assistant chief economist Robert Hogue noted in the report.
That arithmetic alone captures the market's predicament. New listings fell a further 1.6% in July from June, reducing earlier concerns that a concentration of mortgage renewals could produce a wave of distressed selling.
Canadian home sales extended their recovery in July, with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reporting a fourth consecutive monthly gain as tightening supply and stabilising prices nudge the national market closer to balance.https://t.co/GDRsSHHZVC
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) August 18, 2026
A floor appears to be forming under home prices
The national aggregate MLS Home Price Index rose for a second consecutive month in July, back-to-back gains not recorded since early 2024, according to Hogue.
That sequential advance, however tentative, signals that the cyclical price floor may be in place at the national level, even if the road to recovery from there is a slow one.
The rebalancing has been driven partly by stabilizing inventory in Ontario and British Columbia, where listings had accumulated rapidly over the past three years.
Ontario is showing the clearest signs of momentum: resales climbed in Toronto, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, and Ottawa in July, with benchmark values rising in Toronto and Ottawa. Year-over-year, however, transactions and prices across most of the province remain below 2025 levels.
Regional fortunes continue to diverge
British Columbia remains in a slump. Province-wide prices declined again in July, led by Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, with a setback in Vancouver offsetting monthly gains in Victoria and the Fraser Valley.
Alberta has stabilized since spring, with prices edging higher across the province, while Edmonton's MLS Home Price Index benchmark returned to positive year-over-year territory in July.
Markets that previously outperformed nationally — among them Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Québec, and Atlantic Canada — are showing signs of topping out. Monthly resale declines hit Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Montréal, Québec City, Moncton, and Prince Edward Island in July.
Annual price gains in major Québec markets, including Montréal and Québec City, have fallen to less than half the pace recorded at the start of 2026. Halifax's MLS HPI slipped below year-ago levels in both June and July.
CREA's revised 2026 forecast has identified Ontario as the only province expected to record annual sales growth this year, a projection that now has tentative momentum behind it.
Hogue cautioned, however, that any acceleration in national activity will be gradual, held back by static interest rates, slowing population growth, and lingering economic uncertainty.
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