Falling rents across Ontario are giving would-be buyers more room to pause — but experts say the full ownership cost picture still matters most
A confluence of rising vacancies, declining asking rents, and persistent affordability pressures is complicating the homeownership decision for thousands of Ontarians.
According to Rentals.ca's April 2026 Rent Report, average asking rents for all unit types in Ontario fell 5.4% year over year in March. That's steeper than the 4.7% decline recorded in February.
Nationally, the picture is equally stark: average asking rents across Canada fell to $2,008 in March, a 35-month low, with the 5.3% year-over-year decline representing the largest annual drop in nearly five years and the 18th consecutive month of falling rents.
Compared to the peak in May 2024, average rents have now declined by $194, or 8.8%.
In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), the market has loosened sharply. The vacancy rate in stabilised rental buildings completed since 2000 climbed to 5.4% in the first quarter of 2026. That's up from 3.6% a year earlier and more than double the 2.6% rate two years prior, marking the highest vacancy level since early 2021.
For Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert at Rates.ca, those numbers have real consequences for the housing decisions Ontarians are weighing right now.
"Lower monthly costs can make renting feel like the more practical choice for Ontarians who are unsure if they're ready to buy," Tran said.
"That can be a good reason to pause and run the numbers, but the decision should still come down to what each household can comfortably afford over the long term."
Read more: The good and bad news facing first-time homebuyers in Canada’s 2026 housing market
What a looser rental market means in practice
Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand attributed the higher vacancy rate to a drop in demand — driven by declining population growth and difficult economic conditions — alongside an uptick in supply from tenant turnover and a wave of condo completions over the past two years.
The Rentals.ca data adds further texture to the Ontario picture. In Toronto, rents for all unit types have now fallen to their lowest level since May 2022, a 46-month low, following 26 consecutive months of year-over-year declines.
One-bedroom apartments in Toronto saw the steepest fall among the six largest markets, dropping 6.3% to $2,195.
Canada’s rental market is shifting after years of rapid growth.
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) April 7, 2026
Joanna Lang of Outline Financial highlights how rising rates, reduced immigration, and excess condo supply are driving rents down, with further declines expected.https://t.co/1G2tfDup6z
Nationally, studio condo rents fell 10.5% to $1,644, while condo rents overall declined 6.9% to $2,077. Houses and townhomes saw the sharpest drop of all property types, falling 9.0% to $1,990.
The suburban markets surrounding Toronto are feeling the pressure most acutely. Oakville recorded an 11.5% decline in apartment rents, one of several double-digit drops seen in secondary markets adjacent to Canada's largest cities.
Average shared accommodation rents in Ontario fell 6.2% to $991.
For renters weighing their next move, Tran says the softer conditions give them options they did not previously have.
More inventory and weaker demand are handing tenants both greater choice and stronger negotiating power, he notes, meaning landlords must price more competitively or remain open to terms they would have rejected during tighter conditions.
That dynamic, Tran argues, gives would-be buyers more room to be selective, rather than feeling pressured into purchasing by mounting rental costs.
The question of investor-owned units adds another layer. If demand continues to soften due to students leaving, changes in newcomer demand or investor pressure, some landlords may find it harder to carry their properties, potentially pushing asking rents lower still or prompting further incentive offerings.
Read more: Starter homes and select condos lead Toronto's tentative spring recovery
The full cost of ownership remains the deciding factor
Despite improved rental affordability, Tran cautions that a more comfortable rental market does not automatically make continued renting the right answer for everyone.
The case for buying, he says, still holds for households with stable income, sufficient savings, and a long-term plan to stay in a property.
"For some, renting longer can create more room to save, invest, or build a larger down payment," Tran said.
"For others, softer home prices can make buying worth considering if they have stable income, enough savings, and plan to stay in the home for several years."
Property taxes, condo fees, insurance, maintenance costs, and closing expenses all affect whether ownership is financially realistic in a given situation, or whether extending a rental tenancy would leave more room to pursue other financial goals.
Renting can be the clearer option for those who need flexibility, carry uncertain income, or would be financially stretched by the full cost of ownership.
Buying, on the other hand, can work well for those who bring stable finances, a financial cushion for unexpected costs, and a genuine multi-year commitment to staying in place.
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