A third consecutive monthly gain and stabilizing home prices slightly boosted the market in June
Canadian home sales edged up 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in June 2026, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported Wednesday. That extended the national market's recovery to three consecutive months of gains and lifting activity roughly 7% above where it stood in March.
The result builds on the strong 5.5% gain recorded in May that snapped the spring slowdown and a 0.9% rise in April.
On an unadjusted basis, June sales came in 0.9% above June 2025, while the national average home price reached $696,078, up 0.5% year-over-year, according to CREA's June 2026 housing market report.
"June's housing numbers continued to build momentum following the late start to the year in May, with virtually every metric moving in the right direction," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA's senior economist.
"Fixed mortgage rates have eased from their peak in April, and rate hikes from the Bank of Canada this year are much less likely than they were just a month ago. Home prices are no longer falling in most of the markets where they were previously, which had likely been keeping a lot of buyers waiting on the sidelines."
The easing of five-year Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields from their spring peak is a key driver of that fixed-rate relief, with yields having retreated from the levels that pushed lender pricing sharply higher in March and April.
Alongside the June figures, however, CREA revised its annual outlook lower. The association now forecasts 463,336 residential sales in 2026, a 1.4% decline from 2025, reversing a previous projection of a 1% gain.
It attributed the downgrade to a weaker-than-expected first half and the lasting drag from the bond-yield-driven rate spike that dampened sentiment at the height of the spring market.
Prices steady as supply tightens
The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) held flat from May to June at $657,700, the first month since January 2025 without a month-over-month decline.
On an annual basis, the index was down 3.6% compared with June 2025, according to CREA, though that represents the smallest year-over-year gap since October 2025.
New listings declined 1.3% month-over-month, a second consecutive drop.
Combined with rising sales, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio tightened to 50.2%, crossing above 50% for the first time this year.
The long-term average stands at 54.8%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced market conditions.
Months of inventory held at 4.8 nationally, the lowest in 2026, while 208,578 properties were listed across Canadian MLS systems at end of June, up 0.6% year-over-year.
The regionally divergent picture that has defined 2026 so far persisted in June, with annual price declines in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario continuing to narrow.
Nova Scotia posted a year-over-year price decrease for the first time in more than three years, as prices have softened in 2026 after running hot.
Brokers eye a more active fall season
Garry Bhaura, CREA chair, said the conditions for a stronger second half are taking shape.
"The last couple of months have seen the return of more certainty around both interest rates and home values, along with an increasing number of buyers in the market," he said.
"The stage is set for a busier fall market. That usually comes to life after Labour Day."
That cautious optimism is shared but qualified on the broker side. Brokers had tempered their expectations heading into summer, with Elan Weintraub, a Toronto-based mortgage broker at Mortgage Outlet, telling Canadian Mortgage Professional earlier this month that conditions remain difficult to navigate.
"I think real estate is very cloudy and volatile," he said. "It's extremely micro-fragmented. Certain pockets might be lukewarm to hot. Other pockets are ice cold."
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