CMHC data shows June starts fell from May as higher costs and weak demand continue to bite
Canada's homebuilding sector retreated again in June, as new figures from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) pointed to an industry losing ground under the weight of rising development costs, softer demand and a growing stock of unsold properties.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts for all areas in Canada dropped 6% in June to 238,971 units, down from 253,083 in May, CMHC said Friday.
The result fell short of the roughly 255,000 units economists at TD Securities had anticipated.
The six-month trend measure — a moving average used to smooth monthly volatility — declined 2.8% to 248,123 units, landing just above CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook baseline of 247,000 annual starts, published in February.
Actual monthly housing starts in centres with a population of 10,000 or more came in at 20,265 units in June, down 13% from 23,292 units recorded in June 2025.
The year-to-date total reached 113,017 units, down 1% from the same period last year, and far below the 430,000 to 480,000 annual units CMHC has estimated Canada requires to restore long-term housing affordability.
Kevin Hughes, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC in Ottawa, said the figures were consistent with what the agency had anticipated. "Through the first six months of the year, the rate of housing starts in Canada is lower than last year's rate, in line with our baseline forecast published in February," he said.
"There is little doubt that the slowdown reflects rising uncertainty, higher development costs, weaker demand and more unsold homes. Looking forward, we expect that this environment will continue to hold back new housing construction in Canada over the short-to-medium term and drive 2026 actual housing starts below last year's levels."
Garry Bhaura of the Canadian Real Estate Association said the spring housing market appears to have been delayed, as new survey findings show affordability remains the biggest barrier preventing many Canadians from buying a home.https://t.co/bApklIsZp9
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 6, 2026
Regional split as Montreal gains and Vancouver slides
Canada's largest metropolitan areas moved in opposite directions.
Actual starts in Montréal rose 10% year-over-year on the strength of multi-unit construction.
Vancouver, however, recorded a steep 35% drop across both multi-unit and single-detached segments. That's a sharper retreat than the near-flat national trend recorded in May 2026.
Toronto bucked the national softness, posting a 25% year-over-year gain driven by higher multi-unit starts, offering some supply relief in Canada's most expensive market.
Units under construction in centres with a population of 50,000 or more edged up just 0.2% month-over-month to 375,469, effectively flat.
Completions rose 8.4% from May to 18,298 units, while the pipeline of approved-but-not-yet-started projects fell 1.1% to 137,324, a signal that new supply momentum may ease further in the months ahead.
Rural starts were estimated at an annualized 11,141 units.
National housing starts — June 2026
| Metric | June 2026 | Change | vs. Prior period |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR — all areas Seasonally adjusted annual rate |
238,971 | −6.0% | vs. May 2026 (253,083 units) |
| Six-month trend (SAAR) Six-month moving average |
248,123 | −2.8% | vs. May 2026 |
| Actual monthly starts Centres with pop. 10,000+ |
20,265 | −13.0% | vs. June 2025 (23,292 units) |
| Year-to-date actual starts Centres with pop. 10,000+ |
113,017 | −1.0% | vs. Jan–Jun 2025 |
| Rural starts (SAAR estimate) | 11,141 | — | June 2026 |
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), July 16, 2026
Major CMA regional breakdown — actual starts, year-over-year
| Metropolitan area | YoY change | Direction | Primary driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | +25% | ↑ Up | Higher multi-unit starts |
| Montréal | +10% | ↑ Up | Higher multi-unit starts |
| Vancouver | −35% | ↓ Down | Lower multi-unit and single-detached starts |
Source: CMHC, June 2026 actual starts, centres with population of 10,000 or more
Construction pipeline — centres with pop. 50,000+
| Metric | June 2026 (units) | Month-over-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Units under construction | 375,469 | +0.2% |
| Completions | 18,298 | +8.4% |
| Approved permits, not yet started | 137,324 | −1.1% |
Source: CMHC, June 2026 | Next data release: August 18, 2026 at 8:15 AM ET
Resale market inches up as construction outlook dims
The starts data arrived alongside June figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which revised its updated 2026 national home sales forecast to 463,336 transactions, a 1.4% decline from last year, while projecting a 3.7% rebound to 480,567 sales in 2027.
National resale activity edged up 0.5% in June, building on the 5.5% gain recorded in May.
For brokers operating in this environment, the ground-level picture remained complex.
Elan Weintraub, a Toronto-based mortgage broker at Mortgage Outlet, told Canadian Mortgage Professional this month that conditions across Canada's fragmented regional markets are difficult to navigate.
"I think real estate is very cloudy and volatile," he said. "It's extremely micro-fragmented. Certain pockets might be lukewarm to hot. Other pockets are ice cold."
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