New projections show Ford government far behind on 1.5 million homes plan
Ontario’s plan to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031 is slipping further out of reach as the province’s latest budget projects another three years of sluggish construction activity, despite Premier Doug Ford’s government insisting it remains committed to the goal.
The 2025 budget, released this spring, forecasts just 71,800 housing starts in 2025, 74,800 in 2026, and 82,500 in 2027. These figures fall well short of the annual pace needed to meet the target set in 2022.
As of now, only 260,000 homes have been built since the goal was introduced. Adding in projected starts for the next two years, the province will only be about one-quarter of the way there by the end of 2026, halfway through the timeline.
To make up the gap, construction activity would need to more than double in the final five years, averaging over 218,000 housing starts per year.
“The government should acknowledge that it's clearly not going to make that target,” said Eric Lombardi, president of the housing advocacy group More Neighbours Toronto.
He criticized the housing measures in the budget as “ineffective” and claimed the Ford government “has given up on its own housing goals.”
Missed targets
Despite falling behind, the Ford government says it remains committed.
“We’re not going to relent on trying to achieve that goal,” said finance minister Peter Bethlenfalvy during a news conference.
The budget adds $400 million to existing municipal infrastructure programs, covering projects like water mains, and allocates $50 million over five years to boost modular housing capacity. But the budget makes no changes to the province’s main housing incentive program, the Building Faster Fund, which was designed to reward municipalities that meet annual housing start targets.
In its first year, the program disbursed just $280 million out of a planned $1.2 billion over three years, as more than half of Ontario’s municipalities failed to hit their 2023 targets. As of October 2024, only 11 out of 50 tracked municipalities had reached their benchmarks. The housing ministry has not updated its tracker since then and declined to comment when asked by CBC News.
Bethlenfalvy attributed the lower projections in this year’s budget, down more than 20% from last year’s estimates for 2025 and 2026, to global trade tensions and tariffs.
“Let’s be clear, tariffs have impacted housing starts right around the world,” he said.
However, the construction slowdown began before US president Donald Trump’s return and the reintroduction of tariffs. The 2024 forecast had called for 87,900 starts, but actual figures came in at 74,600.
Hoping for federal help
The government’s internal calculations on progress toward the 1.5 million homes include long-term care beds, making the actual housing total slightly higher than the number of starts reported in the budget.
Bethlenfalvy also pointed to what he sees as a more favourable federal climate under Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“I’m optimistic that the federal government will step up to work in partnership with us and I can guarantee you that will lead to more housing being built,” he said.
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The Ontario Real Estate Association praised the budget’s “pro-housing measures.”
President Cathy Polan called on the province to “keep their foot on the gas and continue to support policies to bring affordability back.”
But critics were less forgiving. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the budget “utterly fails to even attempt to address the housing affordability crisis.”
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