For brokers, understanding this divergence is the starting point for every rate conversation right now
When the Bank of Canada started cutting rates in June 2024, the general assumption was that relief would flow through the mortgage market fairly broadly. Rates would fall, affordability would improve, and the renewal wave would hurt less than people feared. That story is largely true. But Statistics Canada's April 2026 lending data tells a more specific version of it — and the specifics matter a lot for how brokers talk to clients today.
The headline figure looks good: the volume-weighted average rate on total insured residential mortgages was 4.16 per cent in April 2026, down from 4.51 per cent a year earlier and 5.63 per cent two years ago. A 147-basis-point drop over two years is meaningful. But that's an average. Once you break it down by product type, a very different picture emerges.
Where the cuts actually went
Variable-rate borrowers got the most. The insured variable rate dropped from 6.97 per cent in April 2024 all the way to 3.79 per cent today — a 318-basis-point decline over two years, slightly more than the policy rate move itself. Uninsured variable borrowers saw something similar: 6.84 per cent to 3.88 per cent, down 296 basis points.
Shorter-term fixed rates did well too. The insured one-to-three-year fixed fell 156 basis points over two years, from 6.19 per cent to 4.63 per cent. The insured three-to-five-year fixed — now the market's most popular term — dropped from 5.10 per cent to 3.87 per cent, down 123 basis points.
The long end tells a completely different story. The insured five-year-and-over fixed rate went from 4.92 per cent in April 2024 to 3.98 per cent in April 2025. In April 2026, it's sitting at 3.97 per cent — a single basis point lower than a year ago. Essentially all of the two-year improvement happened in the first year. The past twelve months produced nothing.
The uninsured five-year-and-over has moved from 5.30 per cent two years ago to 4.18 per cent today — down 112 basis points — but 100 of those came in the first year. The last twelve months: 12 basis points.
Why the long end stopped moving
This comes down to how fixed rates are actually priced. Five-year fixed mortgages don't track the Bank of Canada's overnight rate — they track the Government of Canada five-year bond yield. Bond yields reflect where markets think inflation and interest rates are heading over the long run, and those expectations have been pushed around by things that have nothing to do with Tiff Macklem.
The Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and stoked inflation worries. Five-year GoC bond yields, as tracked by Canadian Mortgage Professional, rose roughly 69 basis points after the conflict escalated in late February. That rise only partially unwound by April. The result is that borrowers choosing a five-year fixed right now are paying a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the bond market — whether they know it or not.
Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets described the macro picture in January: "with rates now at the low end of neutral and inflation still moderately above target, the easing cycle is probably over." The Bank of Canada held again in June — fifth time running. RBC Economics isn't expecting hikes before 2027, but the bond market path — and with it, five-year fixed pricing — stays highly sensitive to what happens next in the Middle East and with inflation.
A client exercise worth doing
The Statistics Canada data makes a specific exercise possible that brokers can actually use. Take a client's current rate — based on when they originated and what term they chose — and map it against where the market sits now.
A client who took an uninsured five-year fixed in April 2024 locked in at around 5.30 per cent. If they're renewing today, or approaching maturity, the best available uninsured three-to-five-year fix is 3.89 per cent. That's 141 basis points. On a $500,000 mortgage, that's about $400 less per month.
A client who went insured variable in April 2024 at 6.97 per cent and held it through the cutting cycle is now at 3.79 per cent. Their payments have already fallen by over $1,000 per month on a comparable balance. They might be wondering whether to lock in now. The data suggests the floor on variable is close, and the five-year fixed has barely moved in a year. Whether to lock in — and at which term — isn't a question the data answers. But it's the question the data makes urgent.
The odd thing happening at the short end
There's one more wrinkle worth flagging. The insured one-to-three-year fixed currently sits at 4.63 per cent. The insured five-year-and-over fixed is at 3.97 per cent. That means the shorter term is actually more expensive than the longer one — the opposite of the normal relationship.
This inverted pricing reflects a yield curve that sees modest rate increases down the road, combined with heavy lender competition at the five-year point that's compressed pricing there. For clients who just want the lowest rate available — first-time buyers, clients renewing with limited equity — the three-to-five-year fixed at 3.87 per cent (insured) or 3.89 per cent (uninsured) is cheaper than most big bank five-year fixes and cheaper than variable was as recently as last October. That's a useful fact to have going into a rate conversation.
As the CMP Top 75 Brokers report noted, what separates the best brokers right now is treating renewal as an advisory conversation, not just an admin task. The Statistics Canada rate data gives you the raw material for that conversation — where rates have been, where they are, and why the next year probably won't look as good for long-term fixed borrowers as the last two did.
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