Vancouver has already lost half its detached housing stock
Canada's only credible fix for housing affordability is more higher-density housing, but the condo model that has shaped big-city construction for decades may not be what delivers it, according to a senior economist at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist at CMHC in Ottawa, made the case on a panel during the second day of MortgageFest Canada at the International Centre in Toronto on September 24. The session was moderated by Dong Lee, chief executive officer of Axiom Innovations.
"I think there are short-term improvements in affordability because prices have come down a little bit, but I tie that more to the uncertainty in the macroeconomy rather than to any fundamental change in the housing system," ab Iorwerth said.
"So because of that, if the economy were to – if the trade situation were to improve and the economy were to recover – I think we'd be back in affordability going in the wrong direction."
Read more: MortgageFest Day 1 recap: Industry leaders on the path forward for brokers
Why higher-density housing may outlast the condo
His long-term prescription was blunt.
"I think the only long-term solution is going to be a lot more housing supply, and that housing supply will have to be in higher density forms. I'm not sure the condo model will survive. Maybe something more out of Singapore would be – but I think higher density housing will have to be some form of solution," he said.
The warning follows CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report which put the national supply gap at 187,000 to 238,000 homes a year. That shortfall is the reason Canada's affordability recovery could go into reverse.
Ab Iorwerth pointed to Edmonton as the counterexample.
"Edmonton, they have a lot faster approvals. It's easier to get stuff built. And they have sprawl. But Edmonton is still relatively affordable and people are moving to Edmonton," he said. CMHC identified Edmonton as the only large Canadian market without a housing supply gap.
The city has also helped lead the Prairie surge in Missing Middle housing starts.
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The shrinking detached home
Taylor Little, chief executive officer of Vancouver-based lender Neighbourhood Holdings, put numbers to the squeeze.
"I think detached housing peaked in Vancouver, for example, in 1971, there's like 70,000 detached homes in Vancouver. Today there's like 35,000. So your ability to even just acquire what's available is a lot lower," he said.
Little said the high-density stock now being built still fails families.
"We're not building a lot of 3, 4-bedroom affordable condo units. Like, if you want a 4-bedroom condo in downtown Toronto, it's crazy expensive. You know, that's a 2,000-square-foot-plus unit. There's not that many of them. So we're still not building even that type of housing stock in this high-density environment, and that's probably a change that needs to come," he said.
Day 2 of #MortgageFestCanada 2026 is underway! 🚀 Alongside another day of insightful sessions and networking, we're proud to host the #WomenInMortgageCA Summit, bringing together industry leaders for conversations on leadership, growth, and the future of mortgage lending. ✨ pic.twitter.com/FfUGamICZh
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 24, 2026
Brokers have flagged the same mismatch. Dan Eisner, founder and chief executive officer of True North Mortgage, told Canadian Mortgage Professional after Toronto's condo market made a wretched start to 2026: "If you can find a quality condo which is 750 square feet-plus, then you're probably good."
Lee framed the stakes with a survey he said was raised at a recent mayoral debate. It found that one-third of Greater Toronto Area (GTA) residents want to leave the region, with affordability a main reason.
Little offered no comfort. "This is the reality. Like, that reality of living downtown Toronto or close to downtown Toronto, detached home, is only available for a real small sliver of people who are fortunate enough to have it. And that's not changing," he said.
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