Behind Canada's debt slowdown, one province still struggles

Equifax Canada's Q2 data reveals a credit market at odds with itself

Behind Canada's debt slowdown, one province still struggles

Canadian consumer debt climbed to $2.68 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, a 4.18% increase year-over-year, according to Equifax Canada's Q2 2026 Market Pulse Quarterly Consumer Credit Trends and Insights report.

While the headline data suggests a stable credit environment, it masks a considerably more complicated picture for Ontario mortgage holders, who continue to fall further behind on non-mortgage obligations relative to the rest of the country.

Non-mortgage debt reached $712.2 billion in Q2, up 4.8% year-over-year and 2.09% from Q1 2026, following a seasonal dip in the first quarter.

The national 90-plus-day non-mortgage balance delinquency rate edged down to 1.76% from 1.79% in Q1, but remained above the 1.70% recorded a year earlier.

"Between March and June, we typically see non-mortgage debt levels rising and missed payments falling," said Rebecca Oakes, Vice President of Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada.

"And while rising delinquency levels have started to slow, pockets of growing stress are still evident in some areas."

Ontario homeowners buck the national trend

The gap between Ontario and the rest of Canada is widening. Nationally, the 90-plus-day non-mortgage delinquency rate for mortgage holders reached 0.77% in Q2, a 12.5% rise year-on-year.

In Ontario alone, that figure climbed to 0.86%, up 2.2% from Q1 and 27% higher than in Q2 2025.

Strip Ontario from the calculation, and the national year-on-year increase falls to just 2.1%, illustrating how heavily a single province is skewing the aggregate.

Mortgage holders there have now seen their 90-plus-day missed payment rate rise every quarter for four consecutive years. Canada's mortgage arrears are approaching a decade-long high, with Ontario a persistent outlier.

"The data clearly shows that the persistent pressure of higher interest rates and mortgage renewal shocks have impacted many homeowners for several years," Oakes said.

"Ontario continues to stand out, with some mortgage holders struggling to keep up with other credit obligations."

The trend aligns with earlier findings on the provinces fuelling Canada's insolvency surge in 2026, where Ontario and British Columbia have consistently registered the most severe deterioration.

Younger buyers lean on family as card balances rebound

Joint mortgages among first-time homebuyers climbed from 57.6% in 2016 to 70.9% through Q2 2026.

In Ontario and British Columbia, the proportion involving borrowers 20 or more years apart — a proxy for parental or family support — was roughly double that seen in other provinces.

"For many younger Canadians, buying a first home seems to increasingly mean doing it with someone else," Oakes said.

"Family support appears to play a larger role in higher-cost markets." 

Credit card balances rebounded to $134.2 billion in Q2, up from $130.6 billion in Q1, with the average spend per consumer reaching $2,192, 1.4% higher than a year ago.

The 90-plus-day credit card delinquency rate improved marginally to 4.19% from 4.28% in Q1, but remains 6.8% above Q2 2025 levels.

A separate Equifax Canada consumer survey found that 25% of respondents expect to make only minimum payments in coming months, while 7% anticipate falling behind, suggesting the current stability may not hold. 

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