Volumes down 31% on last year, but buyer demand hasn't followed suit
Spring's opening week has proven unusually quiet, with just 1,462 homes going under the hammer across the combined capital cities — down 31.1% on the same week last year.
Tim Lawless (pictured), Cotality's head of research, Asia Pacific, noted the softness has now persisted for over a month, observing that this was "the fourth week in a row where the number of auctions held was more than 30% down on year ago levels."
Activity is expected to build in the coming fortnight, with auction volumes forecast to climb to around 1,640 next week and 1,900 the week after, as the market moves further into the spring cycle.
The soft start also comes against a backdrop of high borrowing costs: the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August, its second consecutive hold, with governor Michele Bullock leaving the door open to a further rise if inflation doesn't ease as expected.
Clearance rates steady but unspectacular
Despite the lower volumes, the preliminary combined capitals clearance rate held its ground, coming in at 52.7% — up 25 basis points on the previous week's preliminary figure of 52.4%, which was later revised down to 49.5% on final numbers.
Lawless said the early clearance rate for spring was "only 41 basis points higher than the winter average of 52.3%," suggesting momentum has carried over from the cooler months rather than lifting decisively. The previous week's combined capital clearance rate of 52.4% also sat well below the roughly 70% cleared a year ago.
A mixed picture across the capitals
Performance varied widely by city. Sydney and Melbourne bucked the softer national trend, both posting multi-week-high preliminary clearance rates — 57.7% for Sydney, an 18-week high, and 58.2% for Melbourne, a four-week high, on volumes of 523 and 662 auctions respectively, each up modestly on the previous week but still well down on a year ago.
By contrast, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Canberra all posted some of their weakest results in months: Brisbane's clearance rate slipped to 24.8%, its second-lowest this year; Adelaide fell sharply to 34.5%, its softest reading since April 2020; and Canberra's 36.7% was its lowest in seven weeks and well under the winter average.
Auction activity in Perth and Tasmania remained minimal, with just 13 auctions held in Perth, a third clearing, and only one auction recorded in Tasmania.
For brokers, the early spring data points to a market still finding its footing, with clearance rates yet to signal any clear shift in buyer demand as auction volumes begin their seasonal climb.
