Home sales slump 20.9% as selling times stretch to 41 days
Australia’s spring selling season has failed to fire, with an estimated 39,747 homes sold nationally in September 2026, 20.9% fewer than a year earlier, according to Cotality’s October 2026 Monthly Housing Chart Pack.
Monthly sales have now been lower than the year before for nine consecutive months, extending a downturn in which national home values have fallen for six straight months.
Homes are also sitting on the market longer, with the national median selling time stretching to 41 days over the three months to September, up from 26 days over the same period a year earlier.
Borrowing capacity takes a $90,000 hit
The four Reserve Bank (RBA) rate rises since February, which took the cash rate to 4.6% in September, have reduced the borrowing capacity of a median-income household by almost $90,000, Cotality estimates. That is a fall of about 9% in purchasing power.
Cotality research director Tim Lawless (pictured) said the pressure on buyers went beyond a smaller loan size.
“Buyers aren’t just dealing with reduced borrowing power. They’re also weighing up higher repayments and the prospect of further price falls, which is making some reluctant to commit even if they can afford to buy,” Lawless said.
That hesitation is showing up in loan applications. Equifax data shows mortgage demand fell 19.2% year on year in September 2026, its weakest reading since October 2022, with first-home buyer demand down more than 22%.
Stock builds as selling times stretch
New listings in the four weeks to 11 October were 7.9% lower than a year earlier and 11.9% below the five-year average. Total advertised stock, however, climbed 19.1% to 145,573, a sign that supply is building just as demand thins.
The shift has been sharpest in Brisbane and Perth, where total listings rose 60.4% and 64.7% respectively. Median selling times more than doubled in both cities over the year.
Vendors are adjusting. The median discount across the capital cities widened to 4.4%, the largest in Cotality’s five-year series.
Outlook hinges on rates
Lawless said the rest of the year would depend heavily on upcoming inflation data and the RBA’s November decision.
Minutes from the RBA’s September meeting show the board remains open to further hikes, and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) economists, while expecting a hold, describe the 3 November meeting as very much live in their latest analysis, with September-quarter inflation data due on 28 October.
Lawless was cautious about a recovery:
“Lower property prices will eventually help improve affordability, but that benefit is being offset by higher borrowing costs. Until households have more certainty about interest rates and their financial position, it’s difficult to see a sustained recovery in buyer demand.”
