Data identifies 10 SA4 regions across four states that have recorded positive price growth over two decades of downturns
New analysis from realestate.com.au has identified the property markets that have consistently outperformed through three separate national downturns over the past 20 years, even as broader conditions continue to soften.
The research examined price growth across nearly 100 SA4 regions — statistical areas defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as having populations of between 100,000 and 500,000 — and identified 10 regions across four states and territories that recorded positive growth during each correction period: the post-boom slowdown of 2004–2005, the 2018–2019 downturn driven by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's lending restrictions and the banking royal commission, and the current downturn following successive rate rises and federal budget changes.
The findings coincide with continued softening in the national housing market. The realestate.com.au Home Price Index fell for a fourth consecutive month in July, and economists at ANZ this week revised down their forecasts, now projecting capital city prices to decline 4.3% in 2025 and a further 3.4% in 2026. Peak-to-trough falls in Sydney and Melbourne could reach double digits.
"Sydney and Melbourne prices have declined slightly more than our forecasts, and prices in Brisbane and Perth have started falling earlier than we expected," said Madeline Dunk, economist at ANZ. "This should see capital city housing prices rise by 4.3% in 2028."
Megan Lieu (pictured right), senior economic analyst at REA Group, pointed to two patterns among the resilient regions. "The first is, there's not a lot of capital city regions," she said. "And a lot of that has to do with the fact that regional areas are more affordable.
"Secondly, they tend to have a diverse range of buyer types. So in some of these regions, for example, Richmond and Tweed, it's young families as well as retirees. They usually have strong local economies, or they're somewhat close to regional hubs where there are jobs."
Lieu noted Adelaide was the only capital city to record positive growth across all three correction periods. "I think that has a lot to do with the fact that up until a few years ago, it was one of the most affordable capital cities," she said.
Where home prices rose throughout all three correction periods
| Region | State | Growth: Jan 2004 to Dec 2005 | Growth: Apr 2018 to Apr 2019 | Growth: Apr 2026 to Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central West | NSW | 14% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Murray | NSW | 19% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Richmond – Tweed | NSW | 9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Adelaide – South | SA | 10% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| South Australia – South East | SA | 18% | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| Launceston and North East | Tas | 24% | 7.1% | 1.7% |
| South East | Tas | 35% | 7.0% | 1.2% |
| West and North West | Tas | 25% | 7.8% | 0.6% |
| Latrobe – Gippsland | Vic | 14% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Warrnambool and South West | Vic | 13% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
Adelaide's south a standout
Peter Koulizos (pictured right), property academic at the University of Adelaide, said suburbs along Adelaide's southern coastal strip — from Glenelg to Aldinga Beach and the McLaren Vale wine region — had consistently outperformed for more than two decades.
"The big safety net is they're on the coast, but the big driver of prices has been the new road and rail infrastructure which opened up those beachside suburbs further south," he said.
"The other thing is supply and demand, if you go north of Adelaide there is plenty of flat land, but if you go south, you're bordered on one side by the sea and the other side by the Maclaren Vale wine region. The government's not going to let you rip up vineyards, and it's obviously impossible to build on the water. So that also helps keep a floor under property prices, the fact that there is not an infinite amount of blocks to be subdivided down in the south."
Koulizos highlighted Old Noarlunga as a suburb still in the early stages of gaining wider recognition, with house prices rising 16% over the past 12 months to a median of $849,000.
"It's classic supply and demand - there's not a lot of vacant land around that you can develop, basically you have to knock down old houses that already exist to create new ones.
"Old Noarlunga still has that lovely old world village feel, the classic country pub, beautiful character homes."
Regional NSW holds firm
In New South Wales, the Central West, Murray and Richmond/Tweed regions — spanning Orange, Bathurst, Parkes, Albury, Tweed Heads and Byron Bay — have maintained positive price growth through each correction period.
Scott Petersen (pictured right), a real estate agent at McGrath Central West and Orange, said conditions in the region remained favourable despite national headwinds.
"I've had my best start to the financial year in 10 years, despite all the doom and gloom," said Petersen. "Orange is a very trendy little city now, we don't want for anything in regard to hatted restaurants and cellar doors and all those things that people are drawn to.
"We've got what I call the food, the wine, the mine, and now we've got what's regarded as the best hospitals this side of the mountains. Orange ticks a lot of boxes."
Petersen noted that while buyer competition had eased from post-pandemic peaks, vendors were not discounting. A recent sale in Windera set a new suburb record at $2.1 million.
Victoria's east and south-west
In Victoria, the Latrobe–Gippsland region and the south-west coast, including Warrnambool, have been consistent performers.
Simon Burns (pictured right), an agent at First National Real Estate Latrobe, said the area had drawn significant investor interest due to its affordability and yield.
"We've got a mixture of rental properties and owner occupiers here, and the houses are relatively affordable for most people with really low entry points," he pointed out. "During the last four-or-so years, a lot of buyer's agents have come into the market chasing the higher rental yield for their clients."
Burns pointed to Traralgon's economic breadth as a structural support for the market. "It's diverse for employment - healthcare, education, there's a big government employment base, manufacturing, power," he said. "There's a lot of investment coming into renewables in this area because all the infrastructure is here, and they're talking about AI data centers as well.
"We're an hour and 45 minutes from the Melbourne CBD, but we've got enough infrastructure that you don't have to go to the city. So it's kind of self-sustainable in Latrobe."
Tasmania a consistent outlier
Launceston, the north-west and south-east regions of Tasmania also featured among the resilient markets.
Buyer's agent Sam Spilsbury (pictured right) said affordability and tight rental supply continued to underpin demand. "These markets continue to attract buyers seeking affordability, lifestyle benefits and stronger rental returns than are typically available in larger mainland cities," she stated.
"Investors have been particularly active in Launceston and the northwest, where rental yields remain attractive and entry prices are comparatively affordable.
"While rapid price growth is unlikely, the market appears well-positioned for steady activity levels, particularly across regional centres where affordability continues to drive both owner-occupier and investor demand."
Spilsbury nominated Legana in the Launceston region and New Norfolk in the south-east as suburbs positioned for price growth. Over the past 12 months, Legana recorded a 12.4% rise in median house values to $815,000, while New Norfolk gained nearly 20% to $556,000.
What drives resilience
Lieu said national downturns typically correlate with interest rate movements and policy changes, pointing to APRA's 2018–2019 lending standard changes and more recent adjustments to capital gains tax discounts and negative gearing following the federal budget as examples.
Koulizos said resilient markets tend to combine a broad range of amenities with a high proportion of owner-occupiers, who are less likely to exit a market quickly than investors. He also flagged suburb transformation — whether through gentrification or urban renewal — as a key indicator of above-average price growth potential.
"You need a high portion of owner occupiers because investors are often guided by fear or greed - they can get in and out of a suburb much quicker," he stressed. "Whereas owner occupiers, when they buy a property they're going to be there for a very long time."
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