Bank now expects a 0.25 percentage point increase in November, with NAB also reviewing its position
ANZ has shifted its cash rate forecast following higher-than-expected inflation data, now predicting a 0.25 percentage point rise in November.
NAB has separately confirmed it is reviewing its own forecast in light of the same figures.
All four major banks had previously expected the Reserve Bank of Australia's next move to be a rate cut, though not before 2027.
Big banks cash rate forecasts
| Next move | When | |
|---|---|---|
| CBA | CUT | -0.25 in May 2027 |
| Westpac | CUT | -0.25 in Aug 2027 |
| NAB | TBC | Under review |
| ANZ | HIKE | +0.25 in Nov 2026 |
According to analysis by Canstar.com.au, a November hike of 0.25 percentage points would add approximately $91 to the monthly repayment on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining. Should that hike proceed, borrowers on such a loan would be facing a cumulative monthly increase of $363 across four rate rises this year.
Impact of further 0.25 hike on monthly repayments
| Loan size at start of hikes | Hike in Nov | Cumulative increase across 4 hikes |
|---|---|---|
| $600,000 | +$91 | +$363 |
| $800,000 | +$121 | +$484 |
| $1 million | +$152 | +$605 |
Source: Canstar.com.au. Notes: based on an owner-occupier paying principal and interest with 25 years remaining in Feb 2026 at the RBA avg variable rate. Assumes next rate hike falls in Nov and banks pass it on the month after. Changes are to minimum repayments.
"This shift in ANZ’s rate cut forecast is an important reminder predictions can change,” said Sally Tindall (pictured right), data insights director at Canstar.com.au. "The less-than-ideal inflation figures will force the RBA to debate the merits of a rate hike at its next meeting in just under five weeks’ time. The central bank has warned the risk lies with a hike, and based on the inflation figures, ANZ has now put a date on that risk.
"The big question now is whether ANZ's call eventuates, however, if you've got a mortgage, that's exactly what you should be planning for. Sit down, do the maths to make sure your home loan can handle a fourth rate hike for the year."
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