National-led bloc's lead among small business owners narrows to 13 points
Uncertainty about New Zealand's November general election is weighing on small business confidence, with 41% of owners and decision-makers saying it's having a negative effect, according to a fresh MYOB survey.
The poll of 502 owners and decision-makers at small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) was conducted by Dynata between 17 August and 8 September. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.
Caution over cashflow
Only 16% of respondents said the election was lifting their confidence, while 35% said it was having no effect. Views on the wider economy were split: 38% expect conditions to worsen over the next 12 months, 33% expect an improvement, and 25% expect little change.
Many businesses are tightening their finances. About a third are reviewing budgets and cashflow more closely (34%) or reducing spending (33%), while 24% are holding more cash or being more cautious financially. Meanwhile, 29% are looking for new sources of revenue.
MYOB chief executive Paul Robson (pictured) said firms often delay major investment decisions before an election, and "many are choosing to hold their position until there's more certainty". He expects more businesses to move from holding steady to investing for growth once the result is known.
Other surveys show a mixed picture of business sentiment. ANZ's latest Business Outlook survey found business confidence eased 2 points to a net +52 in September 2026, though its economists cautioned that "waiting for certainty is a decision to do nothing for potentially a long time". ANZ's survey also found firms' expectations for credit access dipped into negative territory, with its ease-of-credit measure falling from +2.4 to −0.3 in September 2026.
A narrowing contest
National leads among SME voters on 36%, the Greens are on 7%, and NZ First is on 6%. Just under one in 10 respondents are undecided.
Compared with MYOB's 2023 pre-election polling, Labour's support has almost doubled from 15% to 28%, while ACT's has halved from 15% to 7%. That has cut the governing coalition's lead over the Opposition from 37 points to 13. More than a third of respondents expect to vote differently from how they did in 2023, which Robson said shows the race remains open.
What businesses want next
Respondents' top priorities for the next government are cutting compliance and red tape and investing in regional infrastructure such as roads, connectivity and energy, each backed by 36%. A third support lowering the company tax rate to 25%, 30% want the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) No Claims Discount reinstated, and 28% favour capping council rates.
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