Council modelling puts real money on the table — and a July decision will set the direction
Auckland Council's planning committee has voted to consult on two competing options for winding back Plan Change 120 — the government-mandated rezoning designed to dramatically boost the city's housing supply.
The decision, passed on a voice vote on Tuesday, departs from the recommendation put forward by council staff, which had backed only the more ambitious of the two options. A narrower amendment to proceed with the stripped-back version alone was defeated 12 votes to 10, leaving both scenarios on the table for local board and iwi consultation, 1News reported.
"The amendment was just a move to pander to a couple of minor Wellington politicians that people don't know the names of," said Mayor Wayne Brown, who seconded the successful resolution.
Brown framed the preferred approach as density in the right places — "focussing on allowing more housing near stations that benefit the most from the City Rail Link, and along frequent bus routes."
Two scenarios, two very different futures
The more ambitious option — Scenario B — would retain six-storey apartment zoning along busy bus corridors within about 10km of the CBD and permit buildings of up to 15 storeys near inner train stations, affecting around 15% of Auckland and enabling capacity for up to 1.7 million homes. The stripped-back alternative, Scenario A, limits changes to what central government legally requires, concentrating development across roughly 13% of the city's urban area and enabling capacity for between 1.4 and 1.6 million dwellings.
Both options sit well below the original two million dwelling minimum that Plan Change 120 had initially targeted. That reduction has a legislative basis — the government moved to cut Auckland's mandatory minimum by 32.5%, from approximately 2 million dwellings to a new legal floor of 1.4 million, with cabinet's stated target set at 1.6 million — a change that received Royal Assent in April.
Planning committee chair Richard Hills stressed that capacity figures are not construction forecasts — they measure theoretical permitting headroom, not actual builds.
"We're taking forward two scenarios in detail so local boards and iwi authorities can compare both scenarios in detail and provide feedback to help inform any future decisions," Hills said.
The final decision on scope is not expected until July — but the market implications are already visible.
What it means for the property market
The numbers are sobering. Auckland Council chief economist Gary Blick told councillors that greater housing capacity would translate to lower house prices over time — between 1% and 2% lower under the most stripped-back scenario, and 5% to 8% lower under the option closest to the original plan — with the estimated 10-year economic benefit ranging from $700 million under Scenario A to $3.9 billion under the more comprehensive approach.
The consultation leaves Auckland's medium-density development pipeline in a holding pattern. The existing Unitary Plan already enabled around 1.2 million homes — both scenarios exceed that floor — but any constraint on permissible density near transport corridors could shift the supply-demand calculus for residential lending, particularly for clients with exposure to apartment and townhouse developments near affected corridors.
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