Listings pile up and confidence stays soft, with little relief in sight before next year
New Zealand's housing market extended its soft run in July, with Cotality's Home Value Index showing a national median value of $804,303 — down 0.3% for the month, matching June's fall.
Values are now 1.0% lower than three months ago and 0.7% down on a year earlier, sitting 17.7% below the January 2022 peak, though still 16.0% above pre-COVID levels from March 2020.
The main centres told a mixed but broadly negative story. Dunedin and Christchurch posted small gains of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while Hamilton slipped 0.2%, Wellington fell 0.5%, Auckland dropped 0.6% and Tauranga eased 0.7%.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the results simply extended a pattern that has held since the start of the year.
"Property sales volumes have inched lower so far this year, although they're still at a relatively normal level. But the stock of listings remains elevated and this is giving buyers the balance of power when it comes to pricing," Davidson said.
Home value index
National and main centres
Confidence remains fragile
Much of the softness continues to stem from broader economic uncertainty rather than housing-specific factors. Davidson pointed to fading optimism around the US-Iran peace deal and continued inflation pressure as broader drags on sentiment, noting the economic outlook remains more uncertain than usual. That caution is echoed in ANZ's latest Property Focus report, which forecasts house prices ending 2026 down 2% year-on-year as investor demand continues to soften.
What it means for lending activity
For advisers, the outlook carries direct implications for client behaviour and borrowing appetite. Davidson noted the Reserve Bank has already begun shifting the OCR back toward a more neutral setting, and while mortgage rates have been steady recently, further rises are likely in the near term. First-home buyers remain active in the market, but Davidson flagged growing caution among investors.
"There are signs that mortgaged investors are becoming more wary — especially with the election looming and property tax policy changes likely coming through if we see a change of government," he said — a view that aligns with ANZ's own findings on cooling investor lending. With Auckland's townhouse supply pipeline still large and listings elevated nationwide, advisers may find first-home buyer clients better placed to negotiate than investors weighing their next move.
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