Southern centres gain ground while Auckland and Wellington values keep drifting lower
New Zealand's housing market fractured further along regional lines over the June quarter, according to the latest QV House Price Index.
Nationally, residential values slipped 0.4% over the three months to the end of June, undoing modest gains recorded in the previous two indexes and leaving the average home worth $906,443 — still 14.8% below its 2022 peak.
QV spokesperson Simon Petersen (pictured) said the headline figure disguises sharply different conditions on the ground.
"The national average only tells part of the story. Tauranga was the North Island's only green arrow this quarter, with Whangārei and New Plymouth the only other main centres to avoid average home value declines,” Petersen said.
By contrast, he noted, values rose almost everywhere south of Greymouth bar Dunedin.
Among the main centres, Christchurch (up 0.9%) again outpaced both Auckland (down 0.7%) and Wellington (down 1%), where conditions stayed subdued.
"There's now a clear regional divide between the country's strongest-performing property markets and those where home values are largely drifting sideways or slightly downward," Petersen said.
South Island strength contrasts with northern softness
Beyond the headline city figures, Petersen pointed to structural reasons behind the split.
Resilient local economies, comparatively affordable pricing, and steadier supply-demand balance continue to support Canterbury and Southland, while elsewhere an oversupply of listings paired with softer economic sentiment is keeping downward pressure on prices.
Buyer confidence has also been dented by broader political and economic uncertainty and ongoing cost-of-living strain. Even so, Petersen said first-home buyers remained active across most regions, taking advantage of elevated stock levels while showing no urgency to settle for less than what they want.
Rate decisions and election add to uncertainty ahead
Petersen flagged that the back half of 2026 carries a heavy run of economic and political milestones likely to shape buyer sentiment, starting with the OCR review.
"Whether today's OCR announcement affects buyer behaviour in the short term remains to be seen, but it will certainly become an important part of the wider economic backdrop as we move through the second half of the year," he said.
That uncertainty was resolved within hours of the report's release, with the Reserve Bank lifting the OCR 25 basis points to 2.50% — its first hike in three years. Short-term mortgage rates have already risen since May, even as longer-term rates ease. Economists expect the tightening cycle to continue, with the OCR seen reaching 2.75–3% by year end.
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