Geopolitical instabilities continue to flow through to NZ housing via supply chains, material costs and inflation. Here’s what advisers are reporting in 2026 as affordability pressure persists
Only five months in, 2026 has already proven to be a turbulent year globally, with conflict, sanctions and ongoing trade disruption keeping markets on edge. Geographically, New Zealand can feel largely removed from these news headlines, but the flow-on effects are increasingly hard to ignore - particularly across construction supply chains, inflation, and housing affordability.
While the market is not reacting with panic, advisers are seeing a gradual change in sentiment and risk awareness that reflects broader uncertainty and the challenge is separating global noise from genuine shifts in lending behaviour and client demand.
Confidence is cautious, not collapsing
Jamie Sanderson, director and principal adviser at Jamie & Co., says clients are still active but noticeably more cautious.
“We’re not seeing panic, but we are seeing more caution,” he says.
“Global events tend to hit confidence first, which then flows into how comfortable people feel taking on debt.”
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He says that “wariness” is then amplified by domestic conditions, including higher stock levels and more buyer choice, which allow purchasers to be selective rather than urgent.
“Global disruption tends to filter into housing through three main channels - inflation, interest rates, and confidence. And if overseas shocks push up imported costs, such as fuel, inflation can remain sticky, which then influences interest rate settings and borrowing costs.”
Cashflow remains the key pressure point
Andrew Chambers, CEO of Tella and Newpark Financial Services, agrees that global tensions are certainly being discussed, but says they are not yet materially slowing activity.
“We’re not seeing it slow down the home loan activity. Our barometer is year-on-year house sales, which seem to be holding up.”
He believes the most important transmission channel is household cashflow.
“This ties to inflation but makes or breaks a loan application.
“Interest rates, while still significant, are not currently the main constraint, and employment confidence has remained relatively stable.”
Buyer mix is shifting, but demand remains
Both advisers note that different buyer groups are behaving differently, but overall activity has not fallen away.
Sanderson says first-home buyers remain highly active, while many existing homeowners are upgrading due to more flexible purchasing conditions.
“Families are using this market to upgrade their home as they can make conditional offers without the urgent need to sell first.
“Investors are still present but more selective, focusing on yield and long-term viability rather than volume.”
Chambers also highlights strength in higher-value segments.
“The over $2.0m market is very strong. In fact, the over $2.5m property is humming at the moment.
“This suggests demand is not uniform - in that global uncertainty is not suppressing the whole market, but it is influencing how different segments behave.”
Construction costs and supply chains: pressure without shock
One of the most important indirect effects of global instability is on construction inputs. War, sanctions, and trade disruption can push up the cost of imported materials, energy, and logistics.
Sanderson says this continues to shape both expectations and lending behaviour.
“Build costs and uncertainty are still shaping expectations. Lenders are generally open to construction lending, but prefer fixed-price contracts and experienced builders to manage risk.”
However Chambers sees no tightening in lending conditions specifically due to global pressures.
“No, in fact the opposite,” he says. “Demand has been down in the last 12 months which has eased things.”
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This suggests construction lending is being driven more by domestic cycle conditions than global shocks at present.
Affordability remains the dominant constraint
While global events add uncertainty, affordability remains the core issue in 2026.
Sanderson notes that the conversation has shifted significantly.
“It’s moved from ‘how much can I borrow?’ to ‘what level of debt actually works long term?’”
Chambers agrees affordability pressure has been a persistent ‘pain point’ for several years and has not materially eased.
“This has been a consistent pressure over the last 3 years. Even where borrowing capacity exists, many clients are choosing to stay conservative to manage ongoing living costs.”
Lender behaviour - stable but selective
Neither adviser sees widespread tightening from lenders at this stage, but both note a continued focus on risk quality.
Sanderson says lenders are more selective in areas such as self-employed income, investor lending, interest-only structures, and complex builds. This is less about policy shifts and more about individual deal scrutiny.
Chambers goes further, saying lender behaviour remains competitive.
“Lenders are being consistent in their approach. Both banks and non-banks are aggressively looking for new business.”
In short, lending appetite remains, but with discipline intact.
Adviser takeaways for 2026
Both contributors emphasise long-term thinking and simplicity in advice. Sanderson stresses the importance of clarity and consistency.
“Advisers should ensure clients fully understand recommendations and that strategies remain valid over time, not just in the current rate cycle. And stay close to existing clients, particularly at refix time.”
Chambers reinforces the need to stay grounded.
“Think long term. We buy homes for the long term and we’ll see many ups and downs in the markets over this period.”
He urges advisers to use common sense in structuring lending and to ensure risk strategies genuinely match client needs.
For advisers, the key challenge in 2026 is not predicting global outcomes but helping clients stay focused on what they can control, structure lending sensibly, and make decisions that remain sound well beyond short-term market noise.
Because where uncertainty seems to be the only certainty in an ever-changing global landscape, the value of clear, grounded advice becomes even more important.
