But the GDP figures would not dampen expectations of a mild recession next year
Statistics New Zealand said the New Zealand economy grew by 2% in the three months to September – far above ANZ’s forecast of 1.1% and Reserve Bank’s pick of 0.8%.
Stats NZ also upgraded its previous estimate of 1.7% GDP growth in the June quarter to 1.9%
Jeremy Couchman, Kiwibank senior economist, said the strength of the economic growth in the September quarter was a big surprise and partly reflected the international tourism recovery that was underway, Stuff reported.
Couchman said the GDP numbers would not do anything to dampen expectations of a mild recession in 2023, with both RBNZ and the Treasury forecasting the economy to dip by under 1% next year.
Caralee McLiesh, Treasury secretary, said nine months of GDP decline was expected next year, when the economy was predicted to contract 0.8%.
The Stats NZ update showed, however, that the economy would be slipping into that expected downturn from a stronger starting point, Couchman said.
He said economists were watching most closely for any signs that inflation was in proper retreat, which would best indicate whether RBNZ might be able to ease its foot off the accelerator on rate rises.
One potential encouraging sign came with the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics announcing this week that the country’s annual inflation fell to 7.1% in November – down from 7.3% in October, with prices rising only 0.1% over the month.
Annual inflation also came in lower than expected in the UK at 10.7%, due in part to lower fuel prices, with pricing overall increasing 0.4% over the month.
According to Stats NZ, services industries were the biggest contributor to growth here in the September quarter, with economic activity in the transport, postal, and warehousing industries up 9.7%.
“With borders opening to all visitors in the September quarter, we have seen more spending on both international and domestic air travel,” Ruvani Ratnayake, Stats NZ senior manager, told Stuff. “The business services industry also contributed to the result, driven by computer system services, recruitment services, and travel agency and tour arrangements.”
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