But market participants say the actual economic picture is more nuanced

Kiwis appear to be leaving New Zealand at an alarmingly high rate.
That's according to government department Statistics New Zealand, which found that annual net migration for the 12 months ending November 2024 was 30,600, down from 133,300 the year before, the most recent data available. Last year, new arrivals fell 32%, year-over-year, while departures rose 28%.
The results have led to pricing pressures for both property owners and landlords as they struggle to find buyers and renters.
"What's happened with rents in New Zealand is that rents have started to [decrease] because population growth has slowed," Kelly Eckhold, Westpac's chief economist New Zealand, told New Zealand Adviser. "What we tended to see in 2024 was a reduction in the speed of inward migration, as well as an increase in the number of New Zealanders that have been looking to leave the country. So the net of those two effects basically reduces population growth and the demand for housing. As a result, we've sort of seen rental pressures start to subside that will certainly have some impact on house prices."
More than 50% of those leaving were New Zealanders, according to the data, many heading to nearby Australia with the promise of greater economic opportunities.
But others say the migration data is misleading, and that there are other factors impacting New Zealand's housing market, as the nation continues to experience opposing headwinds and tailwinds.
"I would take the net migration results with a grain of salt," said Brock Shute (pictured), director and mortgage adviser at The Mortgage Advice Company. "A lot of people flocked to New Zealand as a safe haven during the pandemic. If you strip out those post-COVID[-19] numbers, then they're in line with the historical averages."
Indeed, the net migration, or the number of people moving to New Zealand, versus those leaving, is still positive at more than 30,000 people – just not as high as it was during the pandemic when it reached six figures. Prior to COVID-19, between 2002 and 2019, the average annual net migration was a gain of 28,800, according to Statistics NZ.
At the same time, New Zealand's economy took a hit during the pandemic when tourism all but halted. To tame inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of Zealand (RBNZ) raised the official cash rate. Many New Zealanders, feeling the effects of additional interest rates, decided to either sell and move, or simply hold off from buying all together.
"I don't think [the migration data] is having a huge impact," Wellington-based Shute said, regarding the housing market. "Migration will play a part. But other factors will impact the housing market as well. There are probably five or six other factors impacting the market as well."
Additional dynamics at play
Of course, fewer people means fewer potential occupants, making New Zealand a buyers’ market for both owners and renters.
"But that's just part of it," Shute said. "The government sector cuts are also having an impact."
Adding to the country's economic woes are fewer opportunities for employment. New Zealand's already high unemployment rate of 4.8% is expected to peak at around 5.5% in mid-2025 by some estimates.
"There's been a lot of government cuts [in jobs]," said Michael Anastasiadis, a Wellington-based mortgage adviser at Bozinoff Mortgages. "Interest rates help those with mortgages. But it's not a game-changer. Those that can afford to buy are buying. And then there are those who still want to buy, but when you do the numbers, they can't. Now is a great time to buy. But why would you buy if you're worried about having a job in a few months? That's the reality in New Zealand. The economy is not in good shape. It's tough."
Conflicting results in recovery
Amid high unemployment, an increasing cost of living and so many people leaving the country, Kiwis felt some relief last November when the RBNZ lowered the OCR to a new low of 4.25%.
The outcome has led many advisers to say that business has never been better.
"We've been crazy busy since January," Shute said. "There's more people actively looking this year to buy than last year.
"Net migration was off-set by the level of buyers sitting on the sidelines for the last two years waiting to buy," he continued. "There was a fair chunk of buyer build-up in the last two years; people who have been waiting to buy are thinking now is the time to buy with the lower rates. It's built confidence in the market."