Budget 2026 and OCR hold deliver the stability investors have been waiting for
A concrete and immediate catalyst is already reshaping New Zealand property enquiry from across the Tasman.
Since Australia's federal budget announcements on capital gains tax and negative gearing, NZSIR has recorded an 88.1% year-on-year increase in enquiry from Australia in May to date. Growth has been particularly strong from Queensland (+39.0%), Western Australia (+54.4%), and South Australia (+77.5%).
"Changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing in Australia are prompting investors to look more closely at New Zealand, which offers a comparatively simpler and more stable tax environment," said Mark Harris (pictured), managing director of New Zealand Sotheby's International Realty. "Enquiry from Australia has increased noticeably since those announcements."
Stability, not stimulus — and that's the point
That cross-border interest sits within a broader pattern of global attention on New Zealand property.
Harris says international enquiry is approaching record levels, with website traffic surging from China (+2,968.6%), India (+2,188.8%), the UAE (+301.1%), and the United States (+76.6%). Enquiry activity from the UAE is up 116.7% and from the US up 20% year-on-year.
"At the upper end, particularly in the $10 million plus AIP category, enquiry levels remain very strong," Harris said. "Ongoing global conflict and economic uncertainty are accelerating interest in safe haven markets like New Zealand."
Domestically, Harris says the government's fiscal settings are best understood as a macroeconomic stabiliser rather than a housing policy lever.
"From a property perspective, budget 2026 is considered and disciplined," he said. "It is clearly designed to be non-inflationary and to chart a faster return to surplus, which takes pressure off the economy and helps anchor long term confidence for investors."
Budget 2026 forecasts a return to surplus in 2028-29 — a year earlier than projected. For lenders and advisers, it also introduces a new prudential levy on banks, non-bank deposit takers, and insurers expected to recover $209 million over four years.
The Reserve Bank's decision to hold the OCR has added further reassurance.
"A stable interest rate outlook, combined with a credible pathway back to surplus, sends a constructive signal to the market," Harris said. "That kind of macro stability is critical for supporting property activity over the medium term."
A foundation for recovery, not a rapid acceleration
The property market was recovering steadily through late 2025 and early 2026 before renewed geopolitical tensions dampened sentiment. Harris describes the current environment as resilient rather than surging — and says the budget's value lies precisely in what it did not do.
"This budget will not rapidly accelerate the property market, but it does provide a steady foundation for sustained recovery," he said. "In uncertain times, that kind of structured stability is what both domestic and international investors are looking for."
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