NZ property recovery continues as sales rise, prices steady

New Zealand’s residential property market continues to show signs of recovery, with April sales activity rising 4% year-on-year, according to Cotality NZ’s latest Monthly Housing Chart Pack. 

“Sales activity has been on a steady incline, and we’re now starting to see this translate into home values,” said Kelvin Davidson (pictured), chief property economist at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic). 

Davidson noted that sales volumes have been trending upward for nearly two years, supported by falling mortgage rates. In April, sales lifted to 7% above the historical norm for the time of year. 

Other recent data from REINZ also shows sales volumes rose 9.5% year-on-year in April, although median prices dipped 1.1%, reflecting ongoing buyer price sensitivity and persistent inventory pressure. 

Home values increase for fourth straight month 

The Cotality Home Value Index rose 0.3% in April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Over the past three months, national values have risen by 0.9%. 

Among major centres, Hamilton and Christchurch led the gains, while Dunedin, Wellington, and Tauranga recorded flatter results. 

“Despite these signs of improvement, the market remains tilted in favour of buyers,” Davidson said. “Stock levels are still elevated by historical standards, which will likely keep price growth in check.” 

This aligns with REINZ’s data showing a 0.3% decline in the national House Price Index (HPI) in April, although regional variation remained strong—Southland and Canterbury posted gains, while Wellington continued to soften. 

Property investors return as cashflow improves 

Multiple property owners with mortgages are also re-entering the market. This group made up 24% of April’s property sales, the highest share in over three years. 

“Lower mortgage rates are reducing cashflow shortfalls, improving the financial appeal of property investment,” Davidson said. 

Outlook for 2025: moderate growth expected 

Looking ahead, Cotality expects national property values to rise around 5% in 2025.  

Davidson said momentum will depend on interest rates, lending conditions, and broader economic trends. 

“We’re expecting a moderate upswing, with national property values forecast to rise around 5% for the year,” he said. 

“Lower mortgage rates will be a key driver. But we’re also watching the wider economy, the labour market, and the impact of lending restrictions, particularly debt-to-income limits.” 

Key insights from Cotality’s May Housing Chart Pack 

• NZ residential real estate is now worth a combined $1.64 trillion. 
• 84,226 properties were sold in the 12 months to April. 
• There were 31,035 total listings in April. While new listings have eased seasonally, buyer activity has started to reduce the stock slightly. 
• Gross rental yields now stand at 3.9%, the highest since mid-2015. 
• The pace of rent growth remains subdued, with elevated rental supply and slower net migration. 
• Inflation is back in the RBNZ’s 1-3% range, and following April’s 0.25% OCR cut, further rate reductions are likely. 
• First-home buyers made up 27% of April’s purchases, using multiple funding options to enter the market.