Net migration cools to 17,600 while visitor arrivals climb 9%, ASB warns
New Zealand's net migration gain slowed to 17,600 over the year to June 2026, a figure that is reshaping expectations for the housing market even as tourism numbers climb toward pre-pandemic highs.
Fresh Stats NZ figures show the net migration gain was up from 10,300 in the June 2025 year, but it remains well below the long-term June-year average of 31,200. The result was driven by a fall in departures rather than a surge in arrivals: migrant arrivals rose just 1% to 130,700, while departures fell 5% to 113,100.
"The increase in net migration in the June 2026 year was due to a 5% fall in migrant departures and a 1% rise in migrant arrivals, compared with the June 2025 year," international migration statistics spokesperson Dave O'Donovan said.
Kiwi flight eases but net loss persists
ASB, which downgraded its 2026 migration outlook last month, said the June data reinforced that call.
Economist Wesley Tanuvasa noted the bank's own working-age population projections now sit materially below the Reserve Bank's May Monetary Policy Statement forecasts — a gap ASB expects to narrow only gradually through 2027.
That has direct implications for property demand: with the housing market having been broadly flat for three years, slower population growth removes one of the traditional drivers of a turnaround.
ASB still expects the official cash rate to move toward a neutral setting of around 3.25%, with timing dependent on the broader inflation picture.
The headline migration figure masks a widening gap between citizen and non-citizen flows. Non-New Zealand citizens delivered a net gain of 55,300 for the 12 months to June, while New Zealand citizens recorded a net loss of 37,700 — a reflection of the ongoing trend of Kiwis departing for Australia and other markets.
Using its own permanent and long-term (PLT) migration series, Tanuvasa noted a similar pattern.
"Kiwi flight remains high but is ticking downwards," he wrote in an ASB economic note, adding that annual departures of NZ citizens were down 2.7% for the year, though revised up slightly in levels terms to around 64,000.
Tourism arrivals near pre-COVID peak
ASB expects the tourism upswing to continue near term, buoyed by a weaker New Zealand dollar and the peak ski season through July and August, though it flagged the Middle East conflict as a wildcard that could push up travel costs and potentially divert some long-haul visitors toward closer destinations such as New Zealand.
Annual overseas visitor arrivals reached 3.67 million in the year to June 2026, up 9% on the 3.38 million recorded the previous year — equivalent to almost 300,000 additional visitors and around 94% of pre-COVID levels.
O'Donovan said "visitors from Australia and China made up over two-thirds of the increase," with 144,400 more arrivals from Australia and 67,000 more from China compared with the year before. Australia remained the dominant source market with 1.59 million arrivals, a record for any annual period from that country, ahead of the United States (385,500), China (315,400), and the United Kingdom (196,500).
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