"The market's recovery is unlikely to be a straight line,” economist says
CoreLogic NZ’s latest analysis has revealed a notable improvement in the housing market, with 549 of the 935 suburbs reviewed experiencing an increase in median estimated property values in the last quarter.
CoreLogic NZ's Mapping the Market tool also showed that among the 386 declining suburbs, only 152 recorded drops of 1% or more since December.
Fast risers and steady growers
CoreLogic NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured above) noted that in the quarter ending March, 103 suburbs saw property value increases of at least 2%, including seven suburbs with gains of 5% or more.
“Four out of the seven ‘fast-riser’ suburbs currently have median values under $500k. They are Blaketown and Cobden in Grey District, Patea in South Taranaki, and Wellington Central,” Davidson said in a media release.
Over the year, 27 areas increased by at least 5%, showcasing significant growth, particularly in Queenstown, Auckland, and Wellington.
Regional analysis
A closer look at major New Zealand cities revealed a varied landscape of property market recovery and growth:
- Auckland: 52% of suburbs saw value rises, with Herne Bay remaining the most expensive and areas like Manukau being more affordable.
- Hamilton: Emerging rebounds in 13 suburbs, despite widespread falls over the past year.
- Tauranga: Signs of recovery with 14 suburbs recording quarterly value increases.
- Wellington: Sharp value falls have been followed by clear recovery signs in several suburbs.
- Christchurch: Sustained growth across the city, with Aranui leading the recent increases.
- Dunedin: North Dunedin and Dunedin Central saw the strongest gains since December.
Property market forecast: A cautious optimism
Davidson posited that the recovery phase became more widespread, influenced by stable mortgage rates, employment growth, and easing credit conditions, but he expected the overall market rebound to be gradual.
“The market’s recovery is unlikely to be a straight line... an underwhelming upturn remains on the cards for 2024,” he said, suggesting a tempered yet hopeful outlook for New Zealand's property market.
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