ASB survey shows growing confidence in property buying conditions
New Zealanders are more optimistic about buying property than they’ve been in over a decade, according to the latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey.
Covering the three months to April 2025, the survey found a net 28% of respondents believe now is a good time to buy, marking a 5% increase from the previous quarter. It’s the highest level of buyer sentiment since January 2011.
“Confidence among buyers across New Zealand has continued to climb, with sentiment that it’s a good time to buy at its strongest in more than a decade,” said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley (pictured).
“This shift suggests the market is beginning to turn a corner, albeit gradually, after a challenging few years.”
Rate cut expectations ease as buyers eye current conditions
Tuffley said sentiment may be influenced by expectations that interest rates are close to bottoming out, encouraging some would-be buyers to enter the market sooner.
“Expectation for further interest rate cuts dropped again this quarter, with a net 48% of respondents expecting lower rates, down from 51% last quarter,” he said.
“This likely reflects an understanding that we’re nearing the end of the easing cycle, and rising concerns about resurgence of inflation this year due to global trade tensions and increasing import costs.”
Market recovery expected to be gradual
While confidence is growing, Tuffley cautioned that the market is still in recovery mode and is unlikely to see a rapid upturn.
“While we’re seeing encouraging signs in buyer sentiment, we’re still in a tentative phase,” he said. “Recovery will be gradual, and we’re mindful of lingering challenges such as global growth uncertainty and job security concerns.”
Uneven employment trends may temper housing market momentum.
In a separate report, ASB noted solid gains in the primary sector but ongoing softness in construction, manufacturing, and services—particularly among youth and men. Tuffley expects hiring to remain patchy throughout 2025, with the OCR likely to fall to 2.75% to support the economy—unless job data surprises to the upside.
North Island leads the lift in buying sentiment
Regionally, the North Island (excluding Auckland) led the rise in optimism, with net 29% of respondents saying it’s a good time to buy. Auckland and the rest of the South Island (excluding Canterbury) also recorded strong sentiment, the ASB report said.
Meanwhile, expectations for house price increases were most pronounced in Auckland, even as momentum slowed slightly in the larger cities.
“It’s a mixed picture, but conditions are shaping up for a more active housing market later this year. But there still seems to be a lot of people still adding properties to the Watchlist,” Tuffley said.
