The main centres post moderate reductions in property values, while regions see minor upticks
New Zealand’s housing market remains in a holding pattern, with the national median property value dipping slightly by 0.1% in May to $818,132, according to Cotality’s latest Home Value Index. The update highlights ongoing softness in the main centres while some regional areas posted modest gains.
Property values are now 1.6% below this time last year, and remain 16.3% under their January 2022 peak.
While the regions such as Queenstown and Invercargill are showing signs of resilience, the country’s largest cities – Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch – recorded flat or declining values. Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said that anybody expecting a sharp increase in property values this year “continues to be disappointed.”
“We were always anticipating a subdued year, and the ‘a bit up, a bit down’ patterns that we’ve seen lately confirm that,” Davidson told NZ Adviser. “That’s likely to continue.”
Main centres struggle as listings rise
Across the six main urban areas, the market remained weak in May. Auckland saw a -0.3% drop, Wellington -0.4%, and Christchurch -0.8%. Tauranga and Dunedin both dipped -0.1%, while Hamilton crept up slightly by 0.1%.
Sub-market analysis for Auckland showed a mixed picture: Rodney and Franklin saw slight gains, while Papakura and North Shore dropped by -0.6% and -1.0% respectively.
In contrast to the main centres, some regional areas recorded modest value increases. Queenstown led with a 1.2% rise, reversing declines from previous months. Invercargill followed at +0.5%, with Rotorua, New Plymouth, and Hastings also posting small gains.
Davidson said this isn’t necessarily indicative of a rebound in the regions while the main centres tumble – rather, it indicates a market with relatively little significant movement.
“It’s still patchy everywhere, and it wouldn't surprise me if that turned around again next month – that’s just the nature of the market we’re in,” Davidson said.
“I definitely wouldn’t say that Queenstown or Invercargill are in some fresh boom while Auckland is collapsing. Queenstown, for example, had actually fallen over the previous couple of months, so it’s just a bit of variability from month to month.”
Heading into a buyers’ winter
While sellers will be disappointed by the subdued May performance, static prices combined with a sharp increase in listing volumes means that buyers are now in a strong negotiating position. With less competition and more time to assess their options, the current market is a notable shift from the urgency-driven behaviour seen in previous cycles.
“High listing volumes have definitely made it a buyers’ market,” Davidson said. “If people can get the finance and they’re secure enough with their job, there are definitely opportunities out there. And it’s not like prices are collapsing, but buyers do have a bit of an upper hand when it comes to negotiations.”
Still, access to those opportunities has remained uneven. While some borrowers are ready to act, many are being held back by lingering affordability challenges and job market uncertainty. The result is a market that offers value on paper, but is still light on momentum.
The broader outlook remains cautious. Cotality has projected a mild rise in property values nationally for 2025, but Davidson said even that forecast may now be too optimistic based on current data.
“We’re projecting a 5% rise in national property values this year – but at the moment, even that looks like it may be too strong,” Davidson said. “Overall, it’s still looking fairly quiet out there.
“Mortgage rates may be lower, but we’ve been talking about a year of conflicting forces where mortgage rates support growth, but more listings subdue prices,” he said. “The economy is still fairly sluggish, and there are still credit restraints in the background.
“Either way, a subdued or ‘balanced’ market is probably what we’ve been needing for a while now.”
