Executive on why steady rates can be a plus for the market
Homebuyers and owners hoping for interest rate relief were left disappointed on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate unchanged – but steady conditions present an opportunity rather than an obstacle for mortgage brokers and borrowers, according to Haventree Bank president, CEO, and director Fern Glowinsky (pictured top).
She told Canadian Mortgage Professional that there were plenty of positives in the central bank's decision, including the fact that it appears to be taking a careful and considered approach to the turbulent economy and isn't leaning too heavily towards either rate hikes or cuts.
"It was good to hear the desire to keep watching, stay the course and not overcorrect in any one direction," Glowinsky said. "I thought the balanced message was a net positive."
Much has been made of the wave of mortgages coming up for renewal in 2025 and 2026, with recent Bank of Canada decisions doing little to improve the fixed-rate picture for borrowers whose five-year mortgage is nearing renewal.
But Glowinsky highlighted another trend that's often overlooked: the fact that plenty of renewing mortgages are actually shorter-term loans originated in or after 2023, and those borrowers are able to grab better rates than they first took out.
"A lot of what's in the press is the five-year renewal wave," she said, "whereas in the alternative space you also see shorter-tenured mortgages.
"Some people are finding themselves with lower rates on renewal depending on when they [first took out] their mortgage. If you're in a shorter-term mortgage, you might be renewing out of a 2024 mortgage into 2026. You may be finding yourself in a lower-rate environment."
Glowinsky said the evolving borrower landscape is increasingly shaped by Canadians with non-traditional income sources. "We're increasingly talking to brokers about Canadians who are running their own businesses or have different income sources as they're trying to improve their circumstances and looking for financing," she said. "We take the time to understand each borrower and their circumstances."
Why trying to time the market mightn’t be the right option
On the purchase side, meanwhile, the latest BoC decision doesn't move the needle for potential homebuyers who were hoping for a rate drop to improve the affordability outlook.
While some buyers are content to sit on the sidelines and wait for prices and rates to fall even further, Glowinsky cautioned against assuming it's possible to time the market to get the best deal.
"You could make the same argument for the stock market: trying to time the top or time the bottom can be a dangerous activity," she said. "Making your own plan and figuring out what's best for your situation – that's where brokers add huge value to Canadians."
Regional pictures tell a different story than Toronto, Vancouver struggles
While the national housing market is struggling to find its feet in 2026, that outlook has been skewed by sluggish activity in Ontario and British Columbia, the two largest markets whose performance often overshadows other areas.
Outside of those struggling regions, Glowinsky highlighted a national outlook that appears to be improving. "There are geographies where housing prices are stable or even coming up a bit," she said. "We're a national lender and we're looking across the country to support borrowers."
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem left the door open to both rate cuts and hikes in the months ahead when he addressed the media on Wednesday morning, signalling that the economic environment remains volatile and could evolve in either direction.
But experts still believe the central bank's most likely course of action between now and the end of the year is a prolonged rate hold – and Glowinsky echoed that sentiment, noting that there's still cause for optimism looking ahead.
Potential upside catalysts include improving employment numbers, the FIFA World Cup boosting economic activity in Canadian host cities, and positive movement on US trade talks.
"If we see some good news coming out of the trade negotiations and also some settling down in the war overseas, then there's some more optimism that will help Canadians think more positively about the future," she said.
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