Toronto Dominion predicts up to 6 per cent rises in house prices by year-end… Overall impact on sales from bad winter should be ‘neglible’ say Conference Board… Vancouver market still growing says credit union… And economy improving according to Stats Canada…
If you were expecting for things to start cooling down soon in our hot real estate market, think again. Analysts at TD Economics say there’s more to come with prices set to continue their ascent through to the end of this year at least. The economists’ report predicts an increase of 5-6 per cent in the next five months; in February they had predicted a flattening of the market. That earlier forecast was based on mortgage rates creeping up, but that hasn’t happened. The longer range predictions are for interest rates to rise, availability of properties to increase and for the market to cool; that will be well into 2015 though. TD Economics predict that the biggest growth in sales in the coming months will be Edmonton and Calgary, with employment and population increasing. There is a warning though for those looking to upgrade from a condo; the price of condos is predicted to drop by 2 per cent next year, while single family homes are likely to see an 8 per cent rise, making that transition tougher for families. Read the full story.
Cold start shouldn’t damage the year overall
The Conference Board of Canada say that despite the tough start to the year due to the weather, Toronto’s housing market should end the year unscathed. Their figures show that for the first quarter, sales were down by 9 per cent and new home starts down by 5 per cent on 10 year averages; with heavier than normal snowfall and lower than average temperatures hitting hard. Construction was affected less than sales as builders have equipment to deal with bad weather and can still begin developments. The Conference Board say that an uptick in both sales and construction since the winter should mean a ‘negligible’ impact on the year’s figures as a whole. Read the full story.
Vancouver sees 15 per cent price rise
The price of a single-family home in Vancouver will have increased by 15 per cent by the end of the year, according to estimates from Central 1 Credit Union. Their senior economist, Brian Yu is predicting a rise in the average rate of 5 year mortgages to 5.75 per cent in the next two years, up from 4.9 per cent now, but with increased prices and economic growth, the impact on the market will not be major. With a better jobs market, he is excepting immigration to rise over the coming years, giving further buoyancy to the housing market. Read the full story.
Economy heading in the right direction
The latest export figures show a larger-than-expected 3.5 per cent growth in May, a sign that the economy is improving. The trade deficit fell to $152 million as imports grew at a slower rate than predicted. The Statistics Canada report will be good news for those concerned that a slowing housing market need to be replaced by something else to boost confidence, especially in business. Read the full story.