The takeaways you might have missed in CMHC's latest housing report

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook has already made headlines for its national forecast cut, with sales and prices both set to slide this year rather than grow.

But buried deeper in the report are 18 individual market forecasts covering census metropolitan areas (CMAs) from Victoria to Halifax, and the city-level detail shows just how differently this slowdown is playing out from one market to the next.

Quebec City and the Prairies stand apart on price

While the national price forecast points to a modest decline in 2026, several CMAs are bucking that trend entirely. Quebec City stands out as the strongest performer in CMHC's dataset, with average resale prices projected to climb from $509,800 in 2026 to $541,100 in 2027 and $578,300 in 2028, a cumulative gain of more than 13% over the forecast period, driven by what CMHC describes as more balanced local market conditions.

Winnipeg and Saskatoon show similar, if less dramatic, resilience. Winnipeg's average price is forecast to rise steadily from $423,866 in 2026 to $444,042 by 2028, while Saskatoon climbs from $441,500 to $480,000 over the same period.

Contrast that with Vancouver and Victoria, where CMHC's baseline has average prices essentially flat through 2028 — Vancouver moving from $1,160,000 to $1,202,000 and Victoria from $1,020,000 to $1,013,000, effectively a decline in real terms once inflation is factored in.

Toronto's trajectory is similarly muted on the resale side, with prices not expected to recover to 2024 levels ($1,120,234) at any point in the forecast window.

Regina shows a comparable pattern to its Prairie neighbours, with average resale prices forecast to rise from $363,500 in 2026 to $377,000 by 2028. That's a steadier climb than most Ontario and British Columbia markets are expected to manage over the same period.

The uneven picture lines up with broader national demographic trends. Statistics Canada's most recent quarterly estimates show the national population declined slightly in the first quarter of 2026, marking a third consecutive quarterly drop driven largely by fewer non-permanent residents.

That slowdown isn't spread evenly across the country, and CMHC's CMA data suggests Ontario and BC markets, which have historically absorbed a disproportionate share of newcomer demand, are feeling the pullback more acutely than Prairie centres.

Construction pain concentrated in specific cities

The CMA data also pinpoints exactly where the construction slowdown is hitting hardest.

Edmonton's total housing starts are forecast to fall from 21,337 in 2025 to 16,000 in 2026, with ground-oriented starts alone dropping from 11,186 to 9,000.

Calgary follows a similar pattern, with total starts projected to fall from 27,684 to 22,000.

Smaller Ontario markets aren't spared either. Windsor's total starts are forecast to collapse from 1,262 units in 2025 to just 1,050 in 2026, while Hamilton's starts fall from 3,146 to 2,300.

Kevin Hughes of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says rising development costs, weaker demand and growing inventories of unsold homes are weighing on new housing construction, with starts falling 6% month over month.https://t.co/yvHNRHheW1

— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 16, 2026

Ottawa's apartment starts are forecast to fall from 7,299 units in 2025 to 5,700 in 2026, adding further to the regional Ontario picture. That broad weakness adds context to the gap between headline GTA condo sales figures and underlying demand.

Not every market is retreating, though. Toronto's apartment starts are forecast to rise from 18,986 units in 2025 to 20,200 in 2026 — even as the city's ground-oriented starts fall — making it one of the few Ontario markets where the multi-unit pipeline is still expanding.

Gatineau's apartment segment is expected to jump from 1,584 to 2,800 units over the same period, another notable exception to the broader national pullback in multi-unit construction.

Rental vacancy extremes widen

CMHC's CMA-level rental data shows the widest spread yet between markets. Calgary's vacancy rate is forecast to climb to 5.9% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, the highest in the dataset, as new supply continues to outpace demand growth.

Edmonton isn't far behind, with vacancy expected to reach 4.8% this year and 5.2% in 2027.

At the other end, Halifax's vacancy rate is forecast to remain comparatively tight at 3.0% in 2026, rising only gradually to 3.5% by 2028, even as average two-bedroom rents there climb from $1,919 to $2,120 over the same period, among the steepest rent increases of any CMA in the report despite looser vacancy elsewhere in the country.