Rate hike fears and tariffs keep buyers waiting as brokers head into a slower autumn
Canada’s housing market stalled in the third quarter of 2026 as new US tariffs and the prospect of higher mortgage rates kept buyers sidelined, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast.
The national aggregate home price slipped 0.8% year over year to $810,000 and fell 0.6% from the second quarter. Royal LePage now forecasts a 1.0% annual gain in the fourth quarter, down from the 2.0% it projected in its second-quarter house price survey.
Greater Toronto Area prices fell 3.7% to $1,073,100, while Greater Vancouver dropped 4.0% to $1,148,100.
Greater Montreal bucked the trend with a 2.9% gain to $653,700, and Prairie markets held steadier.
The trade dispute escalated after talks collapsed on Aug. 21 and Washington imposed a 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods a day later.
“For many buyers, the hesitation is less about what they can afford today than how secure they feel about tomorrow,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.
“Buyers have more negotiating power, but little control over the forces shaping their confidence.”
BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri flagged the same risk in April.
“Unfortunately, it’s the economic uncertainty – both related to the trade war and the Iran war – that will likely keep a lot of buyers, especially first-time buyers, on the sidelines,” he said.
Royal LePage home prices by market, Q3 2026
Aggregate and median prices, with Royal LePage’s year-end forecast
| Market | Aggregate price | Year over year | Quarter over quarter | Detached median | Year over year | Condo median | Year over year | Q4 2026 forecast* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada (national) | $810,000 | −0.8% | −0.6% | $856,500 | −0.5% | $571,900 | −1.5% | +1.0% |
| Greater Toronto Area | $1,073,100 | −3.7% | −2.6% | $1,364,400 | −2.8% | $641,500 | −4.1% | −2.0% |
| Greater Montreal Area | $653,700 | +2.9% | +0.5% | $764,600 | +2.6% | $498,800 | +2.2% | +2.5% |
| Greater Vancouver | $1,148,100 | −4.0% | −1.4% | $1,617,200 | −5.6% | $712,100 | −4.1% | −4.5% |
| Ottawa | $796,900 | +2.5% | +0.9% | $911,500 | +2.9% | $410,600 | +0.5% | +3.0% |
| Quebec City | $459,300 | +1.5% | −1.4% | $486,400 | +1.3% | $348,200 | +4.7% | +2.0% |
| Calgary | $690,400 | −0.5% | −0.7% | $807,300 | −0.1% | $255,800 | −3.8% | +1.5% |
| Edmonton | $479,500 | +0.7% | −0.6% | $529,600 | +0.5% | $207,700 | +0.6% | +2.0% |
| Halifax | $526,500 | +0.5% | −0.4% | $598,300 | +0.1% | $406,700 | +0.7% | +4.0% |
| Winnipeg | $420,800 | +2.2% | −2.0% | $461,500 | +2.4% | $279,100 | +2.1% | +3.5% |
| Regina | $400,000 | +0.9% | −1.3% | $440,100 | +0.5% | $234,000 | +3.1% | +3.0% |
*Forecast change in aggregate price, Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025. Prices include resale and new build. Negative figures shown in red.
Source: Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast, Q3 2026 (released Oct. 15, 2026); price data from RPS Real Property Solutions
Mortgage rate jitters fail to pull buyers forward
The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a year, with announcements due Oct. 28 and Dec. 9. Soper expects a hold through 2026 and a hike in early 2027, though a growing number of forecasters are calling for an October rate hike.
Yet the threat of costlier borrowing has not created urgency. “Low confidence is outweighing the urgency to lock in today’s favourable borrowing costs,” Soper said.
Renewals add another layer of pressure. The Royal LePage 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey found 38% of mortgage holders expect higher payments at renewal.
Grant Armstrong, chief growth officer at WealthOne Bank of Canada, is among those expecting an earlier move.
“I think rates will probably go up in October. GIC rates are up 35 points in the last sixty to ninety days. Bank of Canada bond rates are up 60 points. Like everything’s been going up already. So it’s just a natural part of the market,” he shared during MortgageFest Canada in Toronto in September.
Yet the threat of costlier borrowing has not created urgency. “Low confidence is outweighing the urgency to lock in today’s favourable borrowing costs,” Soper said.
Renewals add another layer of pressure. The Royal LePage 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey found 38% of mortgage holders expect higher payments at renewal. Armstrong argued the risk is manageable.
“I think everyone got really worried about the renewal cliff. So they got really good at preparing for it. And I think that preparation has taken the noise out of it,” he said.
“We’re in normal rates today. We’re not in obscenely high rates. So I think the renewal cliff doesn’t exist to the extreme, but it’s something we need to be aware of.”
Don Kottick of RE/MAX Canada says buyers remain willing to make compromises, from relocating farther from city centres to adjusting their spending habits, to achieve their homeownership goals. https://t.co/GOHrsHlsWY
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 14, 2026
What brokers are seeing on the ground
For buyers who do act, leverage has shifted. “Conditions of finance are back in. Home inspections, everything, you name it. Water testing. We have price reductions,” said Sarita Free, a mortgage agent with Mortgage Powered Financial Group in Norfolk County, Ont., who spoke at MortgageFest.
Tracy Valko, founder of AIMI Mortgage Collective, said brokers must understand the macro picture without guessing at it.
“There’s a lot of global tensions right now that are affecting our market. What’s affecting bond yields? What affects fixed rates? Agents and brokers should know that. We as mortgage agents and brokers should never predict, but one thing we should do is make sure that we understand the knowledge so we can future-prepare homeowners for what could be coming down the pipeline,” she explained during the mortgage event.
Andy Kuyper, head of partnerships and secured lending at TransUnion, sees a slow climb rather than a rebound and also shared his thoughts during MortgageFest Canada.
“I’d like to be optimistic. I think we’re facing the reality that with the geopolitical climate and everything that’s happening here, our mortgage industry is probably not ready to rebound. We are seeing slight growth in originations, we’re seeing slight growth in mortgage balances – a lot more on the refi side,” he said.
Soper remains measured. “Canada’s housing market is on a detour, not a derailment,” he said.
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