QPAREB pointed to compounding pressures from rising fixed mortgage rates and cooling population growth
Quebec’s residential real estate market posted its fourth consecutive quarterly sales decline in Q3 2026, with provincial transactions falling 7% year-over-year to 20,935, according to new data from the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB).
Active listings climbed 20% to 42,408 units, but inventory still sits below historical averages across every region of the province, keeping sellers firmly in control.
Supply climbing, but balance remains distant
As QPAREB's housing forecast for 2026 anticipated, the provincial market was expected to moderate while remaining historically firm. The Q3 data confirms that direction.
“Despite the increase in supply and the fact that most areas of the province are in a period of transition, Quebec is still a long way from achieving a more balanced residential market,” said Hélène Bégin, senior economist at the QPAREB in Montreal.
“The upward trend in the number of available properties is beginning to ease shortages and provide prospective buyers with more choice.”
Despite slowing sales, prices have broadly held. The provincial median for a single-family home reached $500,000, up 2% from Q3 2025, while condominiums held flat at $400,000 and plexes surged 8% to $699,000.
Condominiums now average 58 days on market, nine days longer than a year earlier, signalling softer demand in that segment.
Regionally, the picture is mixed. Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke each recorded 12% sales gains, while Montreal’s census metropolitan area (CMA) posted 9,265 transactions, down 12%, marking its fourth consecutive quarterly decline.
Quebec City’s inventory, despite a 27% annual increase, remains 54% below its 10-year average.
In September, Montreal CMA sales fell 11.6% to 3,082 transactions, with new listings up 7.2% to 7,494 and total inventory rising 19.9% to 21,793 units.
Don Kottick of RE/MAX Canada says buyers remain willing to make compromises, from relocating farther from city centres to adjusting their spending habits, to achieve their homeownership goals. https://t.co/GOHrsHlsWY
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 14, 2026
Fixed rate pressures hit first-time buyers hardest
Affordability is the sharpest headwind for those entering the market. Camille Laberge, assistant director of market analysis at the QPAREB, pointed to compounding pressures from rising fixed mortgage rates and cooling population growth.
“Affordability challenges are also discouraging some households from buying a home or condominium in several markets, especially among first-time buyers,” she said.
“Given the increase in fixed mortgage rates in the spring and again in early fall, and that the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate could rise by the end of 2026 or, at the latest, in early 2027, housing affordability in Quebec is likely to continue to deteriorate, as median home prices are expected to remain high.”
Fixed-rate mortgages with terms of five years or longer fell to 8.8% of newly originated loans in July, the lowest level since records began in 2013, with the remaining 91.2% carrying shorter fixed terms or variable rates.
“The five-year fixed-rate mortgage, long the preferred option for Canadians, has been losing ground for several years to shorter terms and, more recently, variable-rate mortgages,” said the Canada Watch research note authored by Daren King, senior economist at National Bank of Canada in Montreal.
Laberge offered a practical signal: “More sellers are lowering their asking prices, a sign that the growing number of properties for sale is creating less competitive conditions” — an opening for brokers helping clients calibrate pricing as Quebec’s market slowly tilts toward equilibrium.
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