MPAC data shows condos driving a modest affordability shift from Ontario's 2022 peak
The share of Ontario homes valued under $500,000 has risen for the first time in years, with new data from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) showing lower-priced properties now account for nearly 24% of the provincial residential market. That's up from a low of 17% in 2022, but still well below the 67% recorded a decade ago.
"The past decade has reshaped Ontario's housing market, and while prices remain elevated, there have been corrections from peak conditions," said Greg Martino, Chief Assessor and Data Officer at MPAC.
"Our data highlights how trends vary across regions and property types, underscoring the importance of local insights."
Condos re-emerge as an entry point
Condominiums have driven most of the affordability improvement. The proportion valued under $500,000 province-wide nearly doubled between 2022 and 2026, rising from 24% to 46%. That shift matters to brokers who have watched first-time buyers struggle to find a foothold in expensive markets.
As Toronto-area brokers said this spring, condos are beginning to attract renewed buyer interest, even if momentum remains concentrated in specific price bands and unit types.
Still, greater availability at lower price points does not automatically mean suitability. Units meeting buyer preferences for size, bedrooms, and location remain scarce at the sub-$500,000 level.
Other property types are moving more slowly. Just 5% of townhouses are now valued under $500,000, up from 3% in 2022 but down from 69% in 2016.
Semi-detached homes sit at 15% below that threshold, compared with 52% a decade ago, and detached homes at 18%, down from 60%.
Regional divides temper the broader recovery
The provincial trend conceals significant variation at the community level. The number of Ontario municipalities with a median home value above $750,000 fell from 105 in 2022 to 65 by 2026.
Communities outside the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) — including Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Hamilton, Collingwood, Kawartha Lakes, Gravenhurst, and Brock — have crossed below that threshold, potentially widening the range of communities accessible to buyers.
Northern and eastern markets tell a different story. In Sault Ste. Marie, the share of homes valued under $250,000 fell from 75% in 2016 to just 22% in 2026.
In Greater Sudbury, it dropped from 50% to 2% over the same period.
Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), captured the cautious mood that continues to define the market. He previously said: "We still have a substantial amount of pent-up demand in the marketplace. More certainty on the trade front and an easing in geopolitical tensions would result in further improvements in market activity."
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