What July's Montreal data says about the market brokers thought they knew
Montreal Island's residential market entered light buyer's market territory in July, with the Tardif Index falling to 24.5. The Tardif Index is a monthly 0-to-100 market indicator published by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
Firm sales reached 1,022, down 16.2% from 1,220 in July 2025, as 512 listings expired unsold. Median prices nevertheless rose across all three major property categories, according to Centris data compiled by the group.
The index, created by David Tardif, licensed real estate broker (OACIQ) and founder of Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif in Montreal, weights three components at 40%, 30%, and 30%: the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), listing expiry rate, and year-over-year sales momentum.
The SNLR of 47.4% contributed positively, but both the 33.4% expiry rate and 16.2% volume decline — consistent with Montreal Island home sales declining for consecutive months — hit the floor of their scales.
"Look only at prices and you conclude the market is solid; look only at volume and you conclude it is slowing sharply. The reality is both at once: a market that sorts. Properties listed at their fair value sell at 97.5% of asking, sometimes with competing offers; the rest join the month's 512 expired listings," said Tardif.
The price that does the talking
Sellers who closed still obtained close to their asking price. Condominiums reached $479,750, up 2.3% year over year; single-family homes $825,000, up 9.5%; plexes $881,000, up 6.8% (Centris data).
The typical sale moved from a median original list of $724,500 to a final sold price of $695,000.
Some 30.8% of sold properties had reduced their price at least once before finding a buyer, up from 28.7% in July 2025, with a median cut of 5.3%.
"The number every Montreal seller should remember this month is 35 days: that is the median time to an accepted offer. A properly priced property finds its buyer in five weeks. Past that mark with no serious offer, the market has already delivered its verdict — and the price is doing the talking. In a month where 30.8% of sales required at least one price cut, rigorous pricing upfront is no longer a luxury; it is the strategy," said Tardif.
Where bidding wars survive
Despite the softening of one of Canada's most resilient housing markets now cooling through the summer, bidding wars did not disappear. Some 157 sales — 15.4% of the month's total — closed above asking, peaking at 116.8% of the final listed price.
Plexes led overbidding at 22.8%, versus 14.7% for single-family homes and 13.1% for condominiums. Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie stood out as the island's most competitive area, with 30.1% of sales exceeding the listed price.
The data arrived as the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, marking its sixth consecutive pause.
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