New Wahi analysis finds four-bedroom GTA condos up while studio sales nearly vanish
The Greater Toronto Area’s condominium market is fracturing along size lines. New research from Wahi, a Toronto-based digital real estate platform and brokerage, finds that buyers who acquired larger units at the outset of the pandemic are still holding gains, while the one-bedroom segment has dropped 14% from Q1 2020 and has recorded flat or negative pricing in every consecutive quarter since Q1 2022.
The analysis compares median sale prices and transaction volumes across condominium types between Q1 2020 and Q1 2026, adding texture to a correction that Canadian mortgage professionals have followed closely.
Wahi’s tracking of GTA days on market through the first half of 2026 showed condominiums averaging 36 days to find a buyer in Q2 2026, roughly three to four times longer than during the market’s 2022 peak.
Small units feel the weight of investor retreat
The data is most acute at the bottom of the size ladder. In Q1, the median price of a one-bedroom Greater Toronto Area condominium was $480,000, with 1,574 units changing hands. That's down 39% from Q1 2020 and 66% below the peak recorded in Q1 2021.
Studios have fared even worse. Just seven transactions were recorded in the first quarter of 2026, against a high of 230 in Q1 2022.
“In today’s GTA condo market, the end user is the main source of anything resembling demand,” said Ryan McLaughlin, economist at Wahi.
“There simply isn’t much appetite among buyers for smaller units, which have historically been geared primarily towards investors looking to flip them and/or rent them out.”
The broker community has had a front-row seat to the fallout. Christine Xu, founder of Money Broker Canada and a 26-year industry veteran, described the pre-construction investor collapse starkly when speaking at MortgageFest Canada 2026.
“A lot of those people are racing masters — they invest in a whole bunch of pre-construction condos and they are being hit the most. Big shot realtors who bought so many pre-construction condos and now — bankruptcy. We see bankruptcy all over the place,” she said.
On pricing, Xu was equally direct: “The price is almost 50% of the original purchase price. So the original owner walked away, gave the condo back to the builder.”
Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank of Canada, says Ottawa should allow foreign buyers to purchase new-build homes, pointing to unsold condo inventory and the government's goal of making Canada more attractive to investors. https://t.co/hUVWtFthRu
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 20, 2026
Larger units offer a buffer — for now
Further up the size spectrum, the picture is more resilient, though still far from comfortable. Two-bedroom condominiums recorded a Q1 2026 median of $630,000, just 2% above Q1 2020 levels.
Three-bedroom units reached $700,000 — a 13% gain — while four-plus-bedroom condos led all categories at $715,000, up 15% over the six-year study period.
Transaction volumes have not been spared regardless of size: two-bedroom sales fell 35% from Q1 2020, three-bedroom activity dropped 43%, and four-plus-bedroom transactions declined 33%.
“Although this is likely not the kind of appreciation condo owners are hoping for, these numbers demonstrate something important about the GTA real estate market in general,” McLaughlin said.
“Even in the harshest environment in decades, buyers who purchase the right type of unit and are able to hold on for the longer term are insulated from the worst effects of a correction.”
“What’s striking is these units have maintained pricing even as sales volumes have collapsed across the board,” he added.
“However, it seems that buyers of larger three- and four-bedroom units have less room for price negotiation.”
For end users — the segment McLaughlin identifies as the market’s only real source of demand — the window may be more open than headlines suggest.
Reaza Ali, national business development manager at Heartwood Financial Group, told MortgageFest Canada 2026, “The market has come into a position now, that those with resources, it’s a fantastic opportunity to jump in... I would focus in on is the affordability piece there, because the price points on these properties are more in line with where they should have been.”
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