Single-family sales surge while condos wait for a rebate that hasn't fully arrived
The Greater Toronto Area's new home market posted its fourth consecutive month of above-average single-family sales in July, but the condominium sector continues to sit largely on the sidelines of a rebound it helped inspire.
According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), total new home sales across the GTA reached 1,018 units in July, a sharp recovery from the record-low 395 sales recorded in July 2025 but still 40% below the historical 10-year average of 1,707 units for the month.
Single-family sales drove the headline figure well above its decade benchmark while condominium sales remained deeply depressed by historical standards, held back by eligibility rules that have limited how much the Ontario and federal governments' harmonised sales tax (HST) rebate program can reach that segment of the market.
The data, compiled by Altus Group as BILD's official source for new home market intelligence, placed July single-family sales at 781 units — a figure that is 50% above the 10-year average for the month and more than triple the 226 sales recorded in July 2025.
Year-to-date, single-family transactions in the GTA stand at 4,831, just above the 10-year average of 4,798.
Why single-family homes are leading
The surge in low-rise demand traces directly to the expanded HST relief program, which Ontario introduced jointly with the federal government in March. The measure removes the full 13% HST for eligible buyers of new homes valued up to $1 million — a maximum rebate of $130,000 — applying to purchase agreements signed between April 2026 and March 2027, with tapered relief available on homes priced up to $1.85 million.
Micky Khaneka of MKG Mortgages in Toronto, speaking to Canadian Mortgage Professional about the rebate's market impact, described the policy as a meaningful catalyst, particularly for buyers who had been priced out of the market during previous years.
"The new HST that they removed has sparked some renewed interest in the newer homes, especially new builds," Khaneka said.
"It's definitely gotten more attention — not just from first-time homebuyers, but even the realtor partners we work with. A lot of them have pivoted to new builds because taking on HST on bigger homes is creating the perfect opportunity."
Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, noted that supply is keeping pace with the recovery in a way that is preventing prices from accelerating unchecked.
"Builders have been responding to the uptick in demand with a steady flow of new low-rise product that is keeping the sector in balance," Jegg said.
"This balanced state serves to avoid the upward pressure typically placed on pricing in a rising market."
The benchmark price for new single-family homes in the GTA fell 8.5% year over year to $1,362,433 in July, a decline that reflects the increased supply entering the market alongside rising demand.
Where condos stand
Condominium apartments — covering low-, medium-, and high-rise buildings and stacked townhouses — accounted for just 237 of July's total sales. That's a 40% increase from July 2025 but still 80% below the 10-year average.
The benchmark price for new condominium apartments moved modestly higher, up 2.5% year over year to $1,054,938. Both prices are gross figures, before any HST rebate benefit, to allow direct comparison with prior years.
The condo sector's struggle to participate in the broader rebound comes down to program structure. Eligibility for the HST rebate in the condominium market turns on construction start and completion dates, limiting the pool of qualifying projects at any given time.
Federal legislation required to deliver the full benefit of the expanded rebate did not receive royal assent until June 18, a timeline that reduced the program's reach for condominium projects in the first quarter of the rebate window.
New condo sales remained 86% below the 10-year average for the second quarter even as they recorded their first annual gain since mid-2023.
Meanwhile, total new home inventory across the GTA held at 18,546 units in July, comprising 12,345 condominium apartment units and 6,201 single-family dwellings. That represents 36.5 months of combined supply based on average sales over the previous 12 months. I
n Simcoe County, the single-family lean was even more pronounced: 64 new single-family sales at a weighted average price of $1,044,171, alongside zero new condominium apartment transactions for the month.
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