Falling new listings are reducing buyers' room to negotiate in the Greater Toronto Area
The Greater Toronto Area's housing market entered a new phase in July, as a sharp contraction in new listings tightened conditions even as overall sales edged modestly lower year-over-year, according to data released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
The board recorded 5,995 home sales across the GTA in July, a 0.9% decrease from July 2025, snapping a four-month run of year-over-year gains.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, sales rose 3.2% from June, a signal that underlying demand has not materially weakened heading into the fall.
The more consequential shift was on the supply side. New listings fell 17.8% year-over-year to 14,484, while total active listings declined 12.1% to 26,098.
With fewer homes entering the market, sales absorbed a larger share of available inventory, a dynamic TRREB president Daniel Steinfeld said is beginning to rebalance conditions in favour of sellers.
"With sales accounting for a larger share of listings, buyers may find there is less room to negotiate moving forward," Steinfeld said.
"Many would-be homebuyers are waiting for confidence in the market and broader economy to improve before making a purchase. This includes more clarity on tariffs, inflation and borrowing costs."
| Metric | July 2025* | July 2026 | Change | Year-over-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Activity | ||||
| Home sales | 6,049 | 5,995 | ▼ 54 units | ▼ 0.9% |
| New listings | 17,620 | 14,484 | ▼ 3,136 units | ▼ 17.8% |
| Active listings | 29,691 | 26,098 | ▼ 3,593 units | ▼ 12.1% |
| Pricing | ||||
| Average selling price | $1,051,263 | $1,003,956 | ▼ $47,307 | ▼ 4.5% |
| MLS® HPI Composite benchmark | — | — | — | ▼ 4.6% |
| Seasonally adjusted | ||||
| Sales, month-over-month† | — | — | — | ▲ 3.2% |
Prices remain under pressure despite tighter supply
Despite shrinking inventory, prices continued to retreat. The average selling price came in at $1,003,956, down 4.5% from July 2025.
The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark, which represents the price of a typical GTA home, slipped 4.6% year-over-year.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the benchmark edged up slightly from June while the average selling price moved modestly lower, a divergence that points to softness concentrated toward the higher end of the market.
That ongoing price weakness reflects what the aggregate averages are obscuring at the neighbourhood level across the GTA.
For brokers working with clients seeking financing, the pricing picture remains uneven. Drew Donaldson, founder and chief executive of Donaldson Capital in Toronto, noted that continuing tightness in the second half of 2026 could push selling prices back in line with year-ago levels and eventually post modest increases.
According to CENTURY 21 Canada's latest Price per Square Foot survey, Regina posted the largest gain in detached home prices, while Todd Shyiak said national trends continue to mask significant differences between local markets.https://t.co/6LUMW5k20g
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) August 3, 2026
Economic signals offer cautious optimism for fall
TRREB chief information officer Jason Mercer pointed to stronger-than-expected economic data as a potential catalyst for the months ahead.
"The latest readings on economic growth and jobs surprised to the upside," Mercer said.
"This could help bolster consumer confidence and prompt an uptick in home purchases in the months ahead, especially if home prices stabilize as we move through the fall."
TRREB chief executive John DiMichele renewed the board's call for municipalities to remove what he described as structural barriers to attainable housing.
Restrictive zoning, high development levies, approval delays, and outdated regulations collectively add tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of every new home, DiMichele said, making the file a pressing issue in the upcoming municipal election.
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