Current policy rate 2.25% Held since Oct 2024
Next decision Jun 10 9:45 a.m. ET · no MPR
2026 GDP forecast 1.2% BoC April 2026 MPR
Unemployment rate 6.8% April 2026 · Statistics Canada
Headline inflation 2.8% April 2026 CPI · energy-driven
BoC inflation target 2.0% Control range 1–3%

Sources: Bank of Canada (April 2026 MPR); Statistics Canada (April 2026 CPI, Labour Force Survey)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its next interest rate decision on June 10, 2026 — and with the policy rate holding at 2.25% since October 2024, the stakes are anything but routine. Inflation has moved up due to higher global oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East, while tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on exports and business investment. For mortgage brokers advising clients through a volatile rate environment, understanding who shapes that decision — and what they're watching — has never been more relevant.

Who actually makes the call

The Governing Council — currently comprising Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Nicolas Vincent, Michelle Alexopoulos, and Marc-André Gosselin — is responsible for making each interest rate decision.

The Monetary Policy Review Committee (MPRC) plays an important role in the discussions leading up to the decision. It consists of the Governing Council, several advisors, managing directors of departments, and other senior personnel — who provide advice and recommendations on the course of action for monetary policy, with the Governing Council making the final decision.

The Bank also draws on a wide range of external inputs. These include data from agencies such as Statistics Canada, current analysis and forecasts from other central banks, governments, and private sector economists, expectations derived from financial market pricing, and surveys such as the Bank's Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

A four-stage process, weeks in the making

Rate decisions are not made in a single room on announcement day. The process comprises four key stages: presentation of a staff projection and economic briefing, final policy recommendations, deliberation and decision, and publication and communication.

A flowchart showing the four stages of the Bank of Canada monetary policy decision-making process: staff projection and briefing, final policy recommendations, deliberation and decision, and publication and communication. Stage 1 — Staff projection and economic briefing ~3 weeks before decision · all four economics departments present ~1 week Stage 2 — Final policy recommendations ~2 weeks after briefing · MPRC discusses; each member recommends ~1 week Black- out Stage 3 — Deliberation and decision Governing Council meets several times · consensus reached · press release drafted Decision day Stage 4 — Publication and communication Press release at 9:45 a.m. ET · press conference follows all 8 announcements Monetary Policy Report 4× per year · next: July 15, 2026 Summary of deliberations ~2 weeks after each decision Statistics Surveys Markets Next announcement: June 10, 2026 · 9:45 a.m. ET · Rate currently 2.25% About one week before the public announcement, members of the Governing Council observe a communications blackout, a "no-comment" period designed to mitigate unnecessary speculation about monetary policy actions. Decisions are reached by consensus, and a press release is drafted before the 9:45 a.m. ET announcement.

What the council is watching right now

Heading into June 10, the data picture is genuinely mixed. GDP growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028. The unemployment rate remains in the 6.5%–7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers.

The Bank has upgraded its forecast for inflation, expecting it to average 2.3% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 2.0%. It sees inflation peaking at around 3% in April before declining to 2.5% in June and returning to 2% by early 2027. Core inflation, which the Bank monitors closely as a signal of underlying price pressures, has proven stickier.

Both a contraction in GDP data for the first quarter of 2026 and April's unemployment rate rise to 6.8% support a continued BoC rate pause. April headline inflation rose to 2.8%, but softer core inflation readings are expected to keep the Bank on hold in the near term.

The overnight rate rose from 0.25% in January 2022 to a peak of 5.0% in mid-2023, then was cut in a series of reductions to 2.25% by October 2024, where it has held since. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Jan 22 Sep 22 Jun 23 Jan 24 Jul 24 Oct 25 Jun 26 Overnight rate Source: Bank of Canada · approximate key decision dates

 

 

For Canadian mortgage professionals advising clients on variable-rate products and renewal timing, the June decision is effectively a referendum on whether elevated energy-driven inflation or slowing growth carries more weight in the council's final read.

What comes after the announcement

The June 10 call is a standalone announcement — no Monetary Policy Report (MPR) accompanies it. Four times a year, the announcement is reinforced with the simultaneous release of the Monetary Policy Report, which provides a more detailed account of Canadian and global economic developments, the Bank's projections, and the major upside and downside risks affecting the inflation outlook. The next MPR is scheduled for July 15, 2026, and will offer Governing Council's most comprehensive public update on the economic outlook since April.

In 2023, the Bank began publishing a summary of deliberations roughly two weeks after each policy rate announcement, further enhancing transparency around the Governing Council's consensus-based decision-making process. That document — released quietly and often overlooked by clients — is among the richest sources of insight into the Bank's evolving thinking that brokers working in Canada's mortgage market have access to between decisions.

Brokers can track the full Bank of Canada decision-making calendar, including the schedule of Business Outlook Survey releases and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, directly through the Bank's website.