What's in store for Canada's 2024 mortgage market?

Company president gives good chance of rate cuts next year

What's in store for Canada's 2024 mortgage market?

With 2023 likely to stand as the peak of the Bank of Canada’s benchmark policy rate, Hash Aboulhosn of Rocket Mortgage Canada is now hard at work to shift his company to a new gear.

"I think we’re going to see rates come down in 2024,” he told Canadian Mortgage Professional.

“In fact, we’ve already seen rates come down at the bottom market. [While] we haven’t seen them reflected in the mortgage space… I think it’s a pretty safe bet that we’re going to see some relief on the rate front.”

A recent survey by the central bank found that most Canadian market players are anticipating rates to begin falling by April 2024, a month later than previous consensus forecasts.

The median projection of the BoC’s poll of 27 financial market players indicated that interest rates will likely ease to 4% by Q4 2024, accompanied by a sharp inflation drop to 2.2% by the end of next year.

“We’ve already seen weakness in the economy, and that’s going to become more apparent in the months to come,” Aboulhosn said.

In particular, brokers can leverage their offering when working with certain debt types next year.

“As rates come down, I think that some of the increase in credit card debt that we’re seeing in other types of debt, [2024] is going to be an amazing opportunity for people to refinance those debts,” Aboulhosn said. “That’s one area where I think brokers really excel: not just applying a cookie-cutter solution, but working with clients to fully understand their needs.”

“My advice would be to stay the course. There’s no doubt that long-term, the demand for housing and mortgages in Canada is positive given that this is a place where people want to live [in]. Our population is growing, [but] our housing supply is not — and that obviously bodes well for the market.”

Part of Rocket Mortgage’s preparation for these trends is getting the best possible people for the right jobs, Aboulhosn said.

“We’re likely going to accelerate the expansion of our production team this year, and that’s always exciting because it’s obviously a tremendously competitive and very big market,” he said.

“We’ve found that we have been able to find the right combination of offerings and marketing and teams to be really able to build on the foundation we’ve got.”

Watch now: Rocket Mortgage Canada president talks rapid growth, 2024 priorities