Bank economists weigh in on what the surprise Q1 contraction means for borrowing costs
Canada slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter of 2026, with Statistics Canada confirming on May 29, 2026 that real gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1%.
The latest figure fell dramatically short of consensus expectations for 1.5% growth and set up a closely watched Bank of Canada rate decision on June 10.
The Q1 decline follows a downwardly revised contraction of 1.0% in Q4 2025, revised lower from the initial estimate of -0.6%. It means the economy has now contracted in three of the last four quarters.
On a year-over-year basis, real GDP was also down 0.1% in the first quarter.
BMO chief economist Douglas Porter, writing in a research note released Friday, described the result plainly: "There's no sense sugar-coating this sour result, as the economy has clearly been struggling to grow since the start of the trade war."
The Q1 weakness was driven primarily by a surprise 2.4% decline in government spending, which provided a consistent floor under growth in prior quarters, alongside a 3.2% contraction in business investment — its fifth straight quarterly fall — and a near-8% drop in residential investment.
Consumer spending held up at 1.5%, though Porter noted this segment "is now dealing with the energy shock."
Read more: Big Six earnings review: Banking giants show resilience even amid stormy economy
What the data means for rate policy
On the rate outlook, Canada's major bank economists broadly align on a June 10 hold.
Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist at TD Economics, argued in a May 29, 2026 research note that the headline miss likely overstates the true weakness.
"The disappointing first quarter figure likely overstates the weakness in the economy as net trade remains noisy and materially subtracted from first quarter growth," Hencic wrote.
He pointed to a strong April flash estimate, a projected 0.4% monthly rebound, as evidence that Q2 should see a bounce-back.
His conclusion was direct: "Our view remains that as the economy continues to operate below capacity, and if the inflation shock fades, the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines."
Desjardins Group says Canada’s outlook is weakening despite a solid start to 2026, with oil prices, trade uncertainty and Quebec job losses weighing on growth.https://t.co/jwMUECw2mN
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) May 22, 2026
CIBC economist Katherine Judge echoed that view, concluding that the positive momentum implied by the April reading would keep the Governing Council on hold.
Porter was equally direct on rate-hike talk: the economy, he argued, "is in no condition to deal with higher rates."
A bounce-back that depends on trade
The Q2 outlook hinges on forces largely outside the Bank's control. Porter acknowledged that a trade deal or lower energy prices would support a rebound, but cautioned that "we can't necessarily rely on either just yet."
Exports fell 4.1% year-over-year, a direct casualty of United States tariff pressure, while business investment continued its retreat as firms held back capital spending pending greater clarity on the trade relationship.
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
