MPC survey finds 67% of newcomers at payment risk as one-third of all holders face imminent renewal
Canada's approaching mortgage renewal wave is bearing down hardest on borrowers with the least room to absorb higher payments, particularly newcomers and recent first-time buyers, according to new consumer research from Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC).
The report, Canadians' Mortgage and Homeownership Outlook, draws on an online survey of close to 2,000 Canadians conducted by Bond Brand Loyalty between Feb. 5 and 25.
One-third of mortgage holders expect to renew within the next 12 months. Among them, 67% are anxious about renewing at a higher interest rate. Across all mortgage holders, 6% are already struggling with payments while another 44% would face difficulty if payments rose by less than 15%.
"Renewal pressure is not just about interest rates. It is about how much room households have to absorb a higher payment," said Lauren van den Berg, president and chief executive officer of Mortgage Professionals Canada.
"This research shows many borrowers are approaching renewal with thin payment buffers, which makes early advice, careful planning and access to the right mortgage options more important than ever."
Newcomers and recent buyers carry the steepest burden
Among first-time buyers who purchased within the past five years, 66% are anxious about renewing at a higher rate and 37% regret the size of mortgage they took on.
For those new to Canada, the figures are more pronounced: 68% are anxious and 57% regret the scale of their obligations.
Payment vulnerability is highest among newcomers — 67% are either already struggling or would struggle before payments rose 15%, compared with 53% of recent first-time buyers.
Rental income is also increasingly propping up ownership. Across all homeowners, 36% say they need to rent part of their home to afford ownership, up from 25% in 2021.
Among newcomers, that share reaches 53%, nearly double the 29% among recent first-time buyers. Mortgage renewal pressures are exposing Canada's widening income gap, with Carl De Souza, senior vice president and sector lead for North American financial institution ratings at Morningstar DBRS in Toronto, pointing to a deepening divide between households that are well-cushioned and those under strain.
“Those pockets of stressed borrowers don’t have a lot of capacity for anything – whether that’s higher inflation levels where they’re paying more for gas and food, or God forbid they have a car repair or a house repair,” De Souza recently told Canadian Mortgage Professional.
“They just don’t have a lot of disposable income left.”
Confidence in homeownership holds
Despite the strain, housing confidence has remained broadly resilient. Some 76% of Canadians agree that real estate is a good long-term investment, while 74% classify mortgages as "good debt" — a figure that rises to 79% among newcomers.
Among non-owners, pessimism has eased from its 2023 peak: 32% now say they never expect to own a home, down from 51% two years ago, though 66% say current conditions have delayed their buying plans.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Spring 2026 analysis confirms the renewal wave has peaked but the pressure is far from over.
Leah Zlatkin, a licensed mortgage broker and expert at LowestRates.ca, recently told CMP that "even a modest increase in the rate can change the household budget quickly," an observation the MPC's own data bears out.
"Canadians continue to value homeownership, but they need a system that supports them through today's affordability pressures," van den Berg said.
"That means increasing consumer choice, better access to professional mortgage advice, and advancing practical policy solutions that keep the dream of homeownership within reach."
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