Federal public servants had sounded the alarm as early as two years ago
Federal public servants warned the government as early as two years ago about the potential housing market impacts of substantial increases in immigration levels, according to internal documents obtained by The Canadian Press through an access-to-information request.
The analysis, which was conducted by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) as part of its preparations for 2023-25 immigration targets, stressed that the pace of housing construction continues to fall behind the country’s robust population growth.
“In Canada, population growth has exceeded the growth in available housing units,” per one slide deck in the report.
“As the federal authority charged with managing immigration, IRCC policy-makers must understand the misalignment between population growth and housing supply, and how permanent and temporary immigration shapes population growth."
The analysis found that despite these challenges, the federal government opted to boost the annual intake of permanent residents to 500,000 by 2025 – a pace that would essentially double the number of permanent residents in that year compared to 2015.
Housing Minister Sean Fraser has suggested that the Canadian federal government is open to potential changes in its immigration targets in response to the country's housing challenges.
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 12, 2023
Read more: https://t.co/aJcZiBaWWM#mortgageindustry #housingcrisis #immigration #mortgage
Immigration policy has put Liberals in the hot seat
The internal documents noted that the immigration policy’s effect on housing affordability has placed the Liberal government in a precarious political position, with Conservatives hammering on the issue to gain significant traction over the past year.
The Conservatives’ current strategy seems to strategically address affordability concerns while sidestepping explicit commentary on immigration, the analysis said.
“Rapid increases put pressure on health care and affordable housing,” public servants warned. "Settlement and resettlement service providers are expressing short-term strain due to labour market conditions, increased levels and the Afghanistan and Ukraine initiatives.”
Meanwhile, the Liberal administration maintained that immigrants contribute to economic robustness, as well as play a major role in managing the demographic challenges posed by Canada’s aging population.
At the same time, the documents warned that even if immigration largely solves the country’s economic growth issues, it will likely not do much when it comes to increasing the standards of living.
“Increasing the working age population can have a positive impact on gross domestic product, but little effect on GDP per capita,” public servants said.
