National Bank economist calls for foreign buyer ban revision as unsold condos hit a 30-year high
With additional reporting by Fergal McAlinden
Stéfane Marion, chief economist at National Bank of Canada (NBC), has called on the federal government to revise the country’s ban on non-resident foreign homebuyers, arguing the restriction directly undermines Ottawa’s drive to restore Canada’s appeal to international investors.
Speaking at the Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC) conference in Calgary on Tuesday, Marion said he expects Ottawa to act before the ban’s January 1, 2027 expiry — and that any revision should specifically permit foreign nationals to purchase new-build homes.
He framed the call around a striking market figure: 28% of newly constructed condominiums are currently unsold, a level he said is the highest since the early 1990s.
“How can you pretend to be a standout investor again if you tell foreign buyers you can’t touch the residential market in Canada?” Marion said.
“I think they’re going to revise this at a time where 28% of condos that they built are not absorbed, which is the highest proportion we’ve seen since the early 1990s. So against this backdrop, I would certainly expect to see some modification to allow foreigners to buy into new build, and that fits the overall message of making Canada investable again.”
Those views align with a growing chorus across the industry. Don Kottick, president of RE/MAX Canada, told Canadian Mortgage Professional earlier this month that the ban has actively suppressed the very supply the market needs.
“I think if you look at the foreign buyer ban and the negative impact that it had on preconstruction, it took a lot of money out of the market that would have driven more preconstruction, more units coming on the market,” Kottick said.
“So hopefully, if that is removed in January, we start to see more investment coming back, which could drive affordability.”
Kottick was equally direct on government intervention more broadly. “We’ve had governments that have always tried to bring policy. Policy will never fix the market,” he said.
“Hopefully the government has learned a lesson that natural market forces have been more beneficial than any government policy — because there’s always been unintended consequences.”
The remarks add a prominent voice to a debate that has gathered pace in recent months. Industry pressure for a new-build exemption has been building as the ban’s January 2027 expiry approaches, particularly among developers and pre-sale brokers.
The decision Ottawa makes before year-end ranks among the most consequential housing policy calls it faces in 2026.
Demographic slowdown and the immigration reset
Marion was equally pointed on immigration. Canada moved from roughly 1.2 million newcomers annually at its recent peak to approximately 200,000, a near-collapse in inflows that has weighed heavily on demand across Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, where population growth has effectively stalled.
“We went from going to 1.2 million people a year a couple years ago to a dramatic slowdown, just 200,000,” he said.
“At most it’s 300,000 — that’s what the system can cope with. Negative population growth is not the solution either.”
He highlighted Canada’s long-term demographic advantage. The country remains the only jurisdiction globally projecting no population decline through 2066, a structural foundation, he argued, that underpins long-term housing demand even amid near-term disruption.
Broker implications and the 2027 stabilization forecast
Marion projected the national composite index — down 4% in 2026 — to level off by 2027, supported by labour shortages and construction cost pressures that limit the downside.
For brokers, the broader deregulation agenda Marion outlined may prove as relevant as any single housing policy shift.
“I am the most optimistic I’ve been over a decade,” he said.
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