Nearly half of polled economists still forecast at least one more rate rise before year's end
The majority of economists and analysts surveyed in Finder's latest RBA Cash Rate Survey expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold the cash rate at 4.35% at its August meeting, though a significant share warn the pause may not last.
Of the 38 panellists polled, 92% anticipate the RBA will leave the rate unchanged on Tuesday. However, 44% still forecast at least one further increase before the end of 2026 — down from 55% who held that view in the prior month's survey.
An MPA LinkedIn poll found a majority of respondents anticipate at least one further RBA rate rise before 2026 is out.
"Interest rates are as high as they've ever been in recent history," said Richard Whitten (pictured right), money and home loans expert at Finder. "And with higher house prices, this makes repayments incredibly expensive.
"With almost half our panel still forecasting one more increase this year, borrowers need to stay vigilant. If you're one of the 38% of homeowners who struggled to pay their mortgage in July, now is the time to act. Negotiating a discount with your bank or switching to a cheaper lender is the fastest way to give yourself a rate cut and save some cash."
James Morley, an economist at the University of Sydney, said recent inflation figures provide the RBA with room to pause. "But the next direction is uncertain and could be up," he pointed out.
Scott Kuru, founder of Freedom Property Investors, also anticipates a hold but cautioned that a rate rise at this meeting would compound existing pressures on borrowers. "Only someone who lives under a rock wouldn't be aware of the effects of the three interest rate hikes so far this year washing through the economy," he said.
"They've slowed the housing market – particularly at the Top End of Town – and generally made life harder for Aussies with a mortgage in a cost-of-living crisis. Inflation is also less than the RBA itself predicted."
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